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DFB-Pokal

Referee: H Osmers

Bayern Munich

S S S T S

1–2

Full-time

Freiburg

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,2

1,7

Scored

2,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

5,3

2,7

Scored

4,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 3. · Freiburg 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+14	9
3	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+12	9
4	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+8	9
5	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+4	9
7	Union Berlin	4	3	0	1	+2	9
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	1	0	+6	7
9	Nurnberg	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Hoffenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Bochum	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Paderborn	3	1	1	1	+9	4
16	Karlsruhe	2	1	1	0	+8	4
17	Sandhausen	3	1	1	1	+2	4
18	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
20	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Hannover	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
34	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Regensburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
61	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
62	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Regensburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
39	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
40	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
41	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
42	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
43	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
44	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
45	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
46	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Karlsruhe	2	1	1	0	+8	4
12	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
14	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+8	3
15	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
16	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Darmstadt	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.