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Bundesliga

Referee: A Sadikovski

Sturm Graz

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

BW Linz

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz BW Linz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 37%

53%

21%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

42%

Both score Ø 45%

53%

37%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,67 xG 1,09

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 10

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 5. · BW Linz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	19	9	6	4	+13	+6.1	33
2	LASK	19	10	3	6	+4	+1.7	33
3	Austria Vienna	20	10	2	8	+2	+0.6	32
4	Hartberg	20	8	7	5	+5	-2.0	31
5	Sturm Graz	19	10	1	8	+4	+3.2	31
6	SK Rapid	20	8	5	7	+0	-1.1	29
7	Altach	20	7	7	6	+1	-1.1	28
8	Ried	19	8	3	8	-1	-0.8	27
9	Wolfsberger AC	20	7	4	9	+1	-4.8	25
10	Tirol	19	6	6	7	-2	+5.1	24
11	Grazer AK	20	3	8	9	-13	-3.3	17
12	BW Linz	19	4	2	13	-14	-3.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	9	6	1	2	+5	-0.8	19
2	Altach	10	5	4	1	+4	+2.4	19
3	Salzburg	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.2	17
4	Austria Vienna	10	5	1	4	-1	+1.6	16
5	Hartberg	10	4	3	3	+2	+0.1	15
6	Ried	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.2	15
7	Tirol	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.7	14
8	Wolfsberger AC	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.4	14
9	SK Rapid	10	4	2	4	+1	+0.1	14
10	Grazer AK	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.2	11
11	BW Linz	10	3	1	6	-3	-0.6	10
12	Sturm Graz	9	3	1	5	-5	+1.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	10	7	0	3	+9	+1.9	21
2	Salzburg	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
3	Austria Vienna	10	5	1	4	+3	-1.0	16
4	Hartberg	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.1	16
5	SK Rapid	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.2	15
6	LASK	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.5	14
7	Ried	9	4	0	5	-2	-1.0	12
8	Wolfsberger AC	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.4	11
9	Tirol	10	2	4	4	-4	+2.4	10
10	Altach	10	2	3	5	-3	-3.5	9
11	Grazer AK	10	1	3	6	-11	-3.1	6
12	BW Linz	9	1	1	7	-11	-2.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.