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Bundesliga
Referee: J Spurny
Sturm Graz
S S U S S
2–0
Full-time
BW Linz
S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz BW Linz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 52%
64%
40%
Points per game
2,1
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
72%
64%
Both score Ø 64%
64%
64%
Average goals
3,4
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
17 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
7 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · BW Linz 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sturm Graz 25 16 5 4 +26 53
2 Austria Vienna 25 15 5 5 +17 50
3 Salzburg 25 12 8 5 +13 44
4 LASK 26 13 4 9 +5 43
5 Wolfsberger AC 25 12 5 8 +15 41
6 SK Rapid 25 10 7 8 +6 37
7 BW Linz 25 10 3 12 -3 33
8 Hartberg 26 7 9 10 -7 30
9 A. Klagenfurt 26 6 7 13 -24 25
10 Tirol 26 5 8 13 -13 23
11 Grazer AK 26 4 9 13 -18 21
12 Altach 26 4 8 14 -17 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Feb -25 Sturm Graz – BW Linz 2–1 28. Sep -24 BW Linz – Sturm Graz 1–2 3. Dec -23 BW Linz – Sturm Graz 1–1 26. Aug -23 Sturm Graz – BW Linz 4–1

Match report

Sturm Graz BW Linz
1–0 T. Horvat ⚽
26′
31′
🟨 Soumaila Diabate
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 C. Noß
↦ S. Seidl
56′
🔁 Anderson
↦ O. Wähling
56′
🔁 Ronivaldo
↦ A. Schmidt
67′
🟨 Martin Moormann
2–0 W. Bøving ⚽
L. Grgić
71′
74′
🔁 J. Gölles
↦ S. Pirkl
T. Chukwuani 🔁
↦ M. Yalcouyé
75′
J. Hödl 🔁
↦ O. Kiteishvili
82′
L. Zvonarek 🔁
↦ W. Bøving
89′
S. Hierländer 🔁
↦ T. Horvat
89′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
1 K. Scherpen G
2 M. Johnston D
47 E. Aiwu D
24 D. Lavalée D
23 A. Malić D
19 T. Horvat M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 M. Yalcouyé M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
38 L. Grgić F
Bench (7)
21 T. Chukwuani
43 J. Hödl
14 L. Zvonarek
25 S. Hierländer
53 D. Khudyakov
36 A. Camara
37 K. Schopp

Coach: J. Säumel

BW Linz

3-4-3
1 R. Vítek G
4 E. Bakatukanda D
15 M. Maranda D
16 M. Moormann D
8 O. Wähling M
18 S. Diabaté M
19 A. Briedl M
60 S. Pirkl M
20 S. Seidl F
30 K. Dobras F
13 A. Schmidt F
Bench (7)
7 C. Noß
28 Anderson
9 Ronivaldo
14 J. Gölles
2 F. Strauß
26 L. Ibertsberger
24 T. Turner

Coach: G. Scheiblehner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Spurny · 59 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.