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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

St Etienne

U S T T U

2–1

Full-time

Lyon

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

5,3

Scored

1,3

2,8

Conceded

2,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 37%

21%

52%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

52%

66%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

62%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,60 xG 0,76

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 17. · Lyon 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	24	5	0	+55	+51.3	77
2	Marseille	30	17	4	9	+20	+14.0	55
3	Monaco	30	16	6	8	+22	+35.8	54
4	Lille	30	15	8	7	+15	+9.5	53
5	Lyon	29	15	6	8	+18	+11.3	51
6	Nice	30	14	9	7	+18	+20.3	51
7	Strasbourg	30	14	9	7	+11	-7.5	51
8	Lens	30	13	6	11	+2	+7.8	45
9	Brest	30	13	5	12	-1	-9.0	44
10	Rennes	30	12	2	16	+5	+5.8	38
11	Auxerre	30	10	8	12	-4	-13.9	38
12	Toulouse	30	9	7	14	-1	+11.8	34
13	Reims	30	8	8	14	-10	-20.1	32
14	Nantes	29	7	9	13	-15	-17.8	30
15	Angers	30	8	6	16	-19	-18.3	30
16	Le Havre	30	8	3	19	-31	-19.8	27
17	St Etienne	29	6	6	17	-36	-34.6	24
18	Montpellier	30	4	3	23	-49	-26.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	13	2	0	+29	+28.5	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Lille	15	10	3	2	+12	+3.7	33
4	Nice	15	9	4	2	+16	+16.3	31
5	Lyon	14	9	2	3	+12	+8.7	29
6	Strasbourg	14	8	5	1	+11	-1.2	29
7	Marseille	15	8	4	3	+13	+16.1	28
8	Brest	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
9	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	Lens	15	6	2	7	-3	+7.9	20
12	St Etienne	14	5	3	6	-7	-7.5	18
13	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-3	+3.4	16
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	15	4	2	9	-14	-11.7	14
17	Montpellier	15	3	3	9	-21	-5.7	12
18	Le Havre	15	3	1	11	-24	-10.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lens	15	7	4	4	+5	-0.1	25
4	Lyon	15	6	4	5	+6	+2.6	22
5	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
6	Lille	15	5	5	5	+3	+5.8	20
7	Nice	15	5	5	5	+2	+4.0	20
8	Toulouse	15	5	3	7	+2	+8.4	18
9	Monaco	14	5	3	6	+2	+11.2	18
10	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
11	Brest	15	5	2	8	-8	-8.1	17
12	Reims	14	4	4	6	-4	-12.7	16
13	Angers	15	4	4	7	-5	-6.7	16
14	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
15	Rennes	14	4	1	9	-1	+0.2	13
16	Auxerre	15	3	3	9	-12	-15.1	12
17	St Etienne	15	1	3	11	-29	-27.1	6
18	Montpellier	15	1	0	14	-28	-20.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.