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Serie B

Referee: A Arena

Cesena

U T T U U

3–4

Full-time

Padova

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cesena Padova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,2

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 31%

32%

30%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

51%

38%

Both score Ø 54%

59%

49%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–3

2,26 xG 1,84

58% Possession 42%

30 Shots 15

11 Shots on target 7

12 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cesena 9. · Padova 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	37	23	10	4	+44	+35.3	79
2	Frosinone	37	22	12	3	+37	+11.4	78
3	Monza	37	22	9	6	+29	+16.3	75
4	Palermo	37	20	12	5	+30	+12.9	72
5	Catanzaro	37	15	14	8	+12	-1.1	59
6	Modena	37	15	10	12	+14	+6.0	55
7	Juve Stabia	37	11	17	9	-1	+1.4	50
8	Mantova	37	13	7	17	-7	+0.6	46
9	Cesena	37	12	10	15	-10	+3.0	46
10	Avellino	37	12	10	15	-13	-15.1	46
11	Carrarese	37	10	14	13	-4	-6.5	44
12	Sampdoria	37	11	11	15	-12	-1.6	44
13	Padova	37	11	10	16	-11	-14.4	43
14	Empoli	37	9	13	15	-7	+5.0	40
15	Sudtirol	37	8	16	13	-10	-5.9	40
16	Virtus Entella	37	9	12	16	-16	-8.3	39
17	Bari	37	9	10	18	-23	-23.3	37
18	Pescara	37	7	13	17	-15	-3.8	34
19	Spezia	37	8	10	19	-16	-2.0	34
20	Reggiana	37	8	10	19	-21	-10.0	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	18	16	0	2	+30	+19.4	48
2	Palermo	19	14	4	1	+26	+9.8	46
3	Monza	18	14	3	1	+22	+12.1	45
4	Frosinone	18	11	5	2	+22	+10.3	38
5	Catanzaro	18	9	8	1	+12	+2.2	35
6	Juve Stabia	19	8	9	2	+10	+6.0	33
7	Sampdoria	19	9	5	5	+2	+3.1	32
8	Modena	19	9	4	6	+11	-0.4	31
9	Virtus Entella	18	8	7	3	+8	+0.6	31
10	Mantova	19	9	3	7	-1	+5.2	30
11	Carrarese	19	7	8	4	+9	+4.9	29
12	Avellino	18	8	5	5	+0	-2.4	29
13	Empoli	19	5	11	3	+7	+10.4	26
14	Bari	19	7	5	7	-2	-8.4	26
15	Padova	19	6	7	6	-1	-5.4	25
16	Cesena	18	6	6	6	+0	+5.3	24
17	Reggiana	18	5	7	6	-3	-5.3	22
18	Pescara	18	5	6	7	+2	-2.4	21
19	Sudtirol	18	5	6	7	-2	-2.2	21
20	Spezia	19	5	6	8	-3	+2.2	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	19	11	7	1	+15	+1.2	40
2	Venezia	19	7	10	2	+14	+15.9	31
3	Monza	19	8	6	5	+7	+4.2	30
4	Palermo	18	6	8	4	+4	+3.0	26
5	Modena	18	6	6	6	+3	+6.4	24
6	Catanzaro	19	6	6	7	+0	-3.2	24
7	Cesena	19	6	4	9	-10	-2.3	22
8	Sudtirol	19	3	10	6	-8	-3.7	19
9	Padova	18	5	3	10	-10	-8.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	18	3	8	7	-11	-4.6	17
11	Avellino	19	4	5	10	-13	-12.7	17
12	Mantova	18	4	4	10	-6	-4.6	16
13	Carrarese	18	3	6	9	-13	-11.4	15
14	Empoli	18	4	2	12	-14	-5.4	14
15	Spezia	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.2	13
16	Pescara	19	2	7	10	-17	-1.4	13
17	Sampdoria	18	2	6	10	-14	-4.6	12
18	Reggiana	19	3	3	13	-18	-4.7	12
19	Bari	18	2	5	11	-21	-14.9	11
20	Virtus Entella	19	1	5	13	-24	-8.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.