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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Birmingham

U S T T T

1–0

Full-time

QPR

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

64%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

64%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 0,37

59% Possession 41%

21 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 13. · QPR 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	36	22	8	6	+36	+26.1	74
2	Ipswich	36	18	11	7	+26	+24.2	65
3	Millwall	35	19	8	8	+10	+9.3	65
4	Middlesbrough	33	18	8	7	+16	+14.7	62
5	Hull	34	18	6	10	+9	-17.8	60
6	Wrexham	36	15	12	9	+8	-1.7	57
7	Derby	37	15	9	13	+6	-0.2	54
8	Southampton	33	14	10	9	+15	+16.5	52
9	Watford	36	13	13	10	+4	+7.6	52
10	Swansea	37	15	7	15	+0	-4.8	52
11	Bristol City	37	14	8	15	+0	-1.7	50
12	Sheffield United	36	15	4	17	+2	+12.7	49
13	Birmingham	36	13	10	13	-1	+13.9	49
14	Preston	36	12	13	11	-1	-13.2	49
15	Stoke	37	13	9	15	+3	-8.4	48
16	QPR	36	13	8	15	-12	-2.4	47
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	+3	-4.3	45
18	Leicester	37	11	11	15	-7	-16.6	44
19	Charlton	36	11	11	14	-10	-12.7	44
20	Portsmouth	36	10	10	16	-11	-0.3	40
21	Blackburn	36	10	9	17	-13	+4.8	39
22	West Brom	36	9	9	18	-18	+4.4	36
23	Oxford	36	8	11	17	-14	-10.9	35
24	Sheffield Weds	37	1	9	27	-51	-39.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	13	3	1	+23	+16.8	42
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	+22	+23.7	42
3	Millwall	18	11	3	4	+8	+8.7	36
4	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	+0.2	35
5	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+10	+5.8	32
6	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
7	Birmingham	17	8	7	2	+13	+17.7	31
8	Wrexham	19	8	6	5	+4	+7.6	30
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Charlton	18	8	4	6	+0	+0.3	28
12	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	+8	+13.5	27
13	Derby	19	7	6	6	+1	+1.0	27
14	Preston	19	7	6	6	+0	-4.4	27
15	Stoke	18	7	5	6	+6	+1.5	26
16	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	+6.0	26
17	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+2	-0.1	25
18	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.6	25
19	West Brom	17	6	6	5	-3	+9.6	24
20	Portsmouth	18	6	4	8	+0	+6.3	22
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	-3	+1.2	19
22	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
23	Oxford	17	4	6	7	-8	-1.9	18
24	Sheffield Weds	19	0	5	14	-29	-17.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	9	5	5	+13	+9.4	32
2	Hull	17	9	3	5	+6	-10.6	30
3	Middlesbrough	17	9	3	5	+6	+8.9	30
4	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
5	Derby	18	8	3	7	+5	-1.2	27
6	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
7	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
8	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	-2	-1.5	25
9	Ipswich	17	6	5	6	+4	+0.5	23
10	Southampton	17	6	5	6	+3	+5.6	23
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	-1	-8.8	22
12	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-3	-9.9	22
13	Sheffield United	18	7	1	10	-6	-0.8	22
14	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-6	-1.9	21
15	QPR	18	5	6	7	-11	-8.4	21
16	Watford	18	4	8	6	-3	+0.9	20
17	Leicester	19	4	7	8	-7	-14.9	19
18	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
19	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	-14	-3.7	18
20	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
21	Swansea	18	5	2	11	-9	-5.0	17
22	Charlton	18	3	7	8	-10	-13.0	16
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	-15	-5.2	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-22	-21.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.