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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Plymouth

U T T S T

3–1

Full-time

Luton

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 1,07

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 15

0 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 20. · Luton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	6	5	1	0	+8	+5.4	16
2	Sunderland	6	5	0	1	+9	+4.1	15
3	Sheffield United	6	4	2	0	+6	+3.3	14
4	Burnley	6	4	1	1	+9	-0.8	13
5	Blackburn	6	3	3	0	+6	-0.1	12
6	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+5	+7.4	11
7	Swansea	6	3	1	2	+3	-3.3	10
8	Watford	6	3	1	2	+1	-2.1	10
9	Oxford	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.9	9
10	Derby	6	3	0	3	+1	-1.2	9
11	Norwich	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.1	8
12	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	+1	+6.3	8
13	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	-4	-0.1	8
14	QPR	6	1	4	1	-1	-0.7	7
15	Luton	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.8	7
16	Hull	6	1	3	2	-2	+0.5	6
17	Stoke	6	2	0	4	-5	-1.4	6
18	Millwall	6	1	2	3	+0	+4.4	5
19	Coventry	6	1	2	3	-2	+3.8	5
20	Plymouth	6	1	2	3	-5	-8.9	5
21	Preston	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.8	5
22	Sheffield Weds	6	1	1	4	-6	-2.0	4
23	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.2	3
24	Cardiff	6	0	1	5	-12	-5.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.1	9
2	Sunderland	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.8	9
3	Oxford	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
4	Derby	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.2	9
5	Burnley	3	2	1	0	+6	+0.4	7
6	Watford	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
7	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.0	7
8	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
9	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
10	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
11	Norwich	3	1	2	0	+3	+2.4	5
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	+5.4	5
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
14	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
15	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.2	4
17	Millwall	3	1	0	2	+1	+3.9	3
18	Coventry	3	1	0	2	-1	+3.5	3
19	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
20	Luton	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.8	3
21	QPR	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
22	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.9	2
23	Portsmouth	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.2	1
24	Cardiff	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.0	9
2	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.4	7
4	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.3	6
5	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.1	6
6	QPR	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.1	5
7	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
8	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
9	Blackburn	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
11	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	-5.2	3
12	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.3	3
13	Watford	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.4	3
14	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
15	Portsmouth	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.0	2
16	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
17	Coventry	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.3	2
18	Preston	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.6	1
19	Plymouth	3	0	1	2	-5	-8.0	1
20	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.0	1
21	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.3	1
22	Oxford	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.5	0
23	Derby	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.