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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Leicester

S S T U T

4–2

Full-time

Watford

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

42%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

42%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 13. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+28	28
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
4	West Ham	12	7	2	3	+9	23
5	Arsenal	13	7	2	4	-2	23
6	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+0	20
7	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	-6	19
8	Brighton	13	4	6	3	-2	18
9	Man United	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Crystal Palace	13	3	7	3	+0	16
11	Aston Villa	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Everton	12	4	3	5	-3	15
13	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-5	15
14	Southampton	13	3	5	5	-7	14
15	Brentford	12	3	4	5	-1	13
16	Watford	12	4	1	7	-4	13
17	Leeds	13	2	6	5	-8	12
18	Burnley	12	1	6	5	-6	9
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-20	9
20	Newcastle	13	0	6	7	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
2	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
3	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+14	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+13	13
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	-2	12
6	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Watford	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Leeds	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-2	4
20	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+0	10
7	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Leicester	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
12	Watford	6	2	0	4	+0	6
13	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-14	4
19	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.