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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Watford

T U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 38%

39%

36%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

57%

46%

Both score Ø 58%

54%

61%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

6 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Leicester 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	23	2	4	+56	71
2	Liverpool	28	21	6	1	+49	69
3	Tottenham	29	20	1	8	+26	61
4	Man United	29	17	7	5	+20	58
5	Arsenal	29	17	6	6	+22	57
6	Chelsea	27	16	5	6	+18	53
7	Wolves	29	12	7	10	+2	43
8	Watford	28	11	7	10	-1	40
9	West Ham	29	11	6	12	-4	39
10	Everton	28	10	6	12	+0	36
11	Leicester	28	10	5	13	-5	35
12	Bournemouth	29	10	4	15	-15	34
13	Crystal Palace	29	9	6	14	-4	33
14	Newcastle	29	8	7	14	-10	31
15	Brighton	28	8	6	14	-11	30
16	Burnley	29	8	6	15	-21	30
17	Southampton	29	6	9	14	-17	27
18	Cardiff	29	7	4	18	-32	25
19	Fulham	28	4	5	19	-37	17
20	Huddersfield	29	3	5	21	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	0	1	+39	42
2	Liverpool	14	12	2	0	+33	38
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+23	38
4	Chelsea	14	9	4	1	+19	31
5	Man United	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
7	Bournemouth	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	West Ham	15	7	3	5	+3	24
9	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+3	24
10	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
11	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
12	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
13	Newcastle	15	6	1	8	-2	19
14	Leicester	14	5	2	7	-2	17
15	Burnley	14	5	2	7	-8	17
16	Cardiff	15	5	2	8	-15	17
17	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-4	15
18	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
19	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Huddersfield	15	2	2	11	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+14	33
2	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Man City	14	9	2	3	+17	29
4	Man United	15	9	2	4	+10	29
5	Chelsea	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Crystal Palace	15	6	2	7	+1	20
7	Watford	15	5	5	5	+0	20
8	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Wolves	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Leicester	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Everton	14	4	3	7	+0	15
12	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-7	15
13	Burnley	15	3	4	8	-13	13
14	Newcastle	14	2	6	6	-8	12
15	Southampton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Bournemouth	14	3	0	11	-22	9
17	Brighton	14	2	2	10	-13	8
18	Cardiff	14	2	2	10	-17	8
19	Huddersfield	14	1	3	10	-21	6
20	Fulham	15	0	2	13	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.