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Allsvenskan

Referee: T Olofsson

Kalmar

T T S U U

3–1

Full-time

Varnamo

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kalmar Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

24%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

71%

48%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,72 xG 2,02

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Kalmar 16. · Varnamo 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	22	15	4	3	+34	+20.8	49
2	Hammarby	21	12	3	6	+17	+3.7	39
3	Djurgarden	21	12	3	6	+11	+1.2	39
4	Mjallby	22	11	4	7	+6	+1.1	37
5	GAIS	22	11	3	8	+1	-3.9	36
6	AIK	22	11	3	8	-1	+2.3	36
7	Sirius	22	10	4	8	+5	+1.2	34
8	Elfsborg	21	10	3	8	+10	+5.5	33
9	Hacken	20	9	5	6	+7	-2.8	32
10	Brommapojkarna	22	6	8	8	-6	-0.8	26
11	Norrkoping	21	7	3	11	-17	-5.4	24
12	Goteborg	21	5	6	10	-11	-5.6	21
13	Halmstad	21	7	0	14	-16	-6.8	21
14	Varnamo	21	5	5	11	-10	-6.4	20
15	Vasteras SK	22	5	3	14	-12	+5.3	18
16	Kalmar	21	5	3	13	-18	-9.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	10	9	0	1	+23	+8.3	27
2	Elfsborg	11	8	1	2	+17	+5.3	25
3	Mjallby	11	7	3	1	+10	+2.6	24
4	GAIS	11	7	2	2	+7	+0.5	23
5	AIK	11	7	1	3	+10	+3.0	22
6	Hammarby	10	6	2	2	+11	+0.7	20
7	Djurgarden	11	5	3	3	+2	-1.5	18
8	Hacken	10	5	2	3	+7	-2.3	17
9	Sirius	11	5	2	4	+6	+3.2	17
10	Norrkoping	11	5	1	5	-5	-2.5	16
11	Halmstad	10	5	0	5	+3	-1.1	15
12	Vasteras SK	12	3	1	8	-7	+3.7	10
13	Goteborg	11	2	4	5	-7	-4.4	10
14	Brommapojkarna	10	2	4	4	-8	-0.8	10
15	Kalmar	10	2	2	6	-7	-3.2	8
16	Varnamo	11	1	2	8	-14	-3.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	12	6	4	2	+11	+12.5	22
2	Djurgarden	10	7	0	3	+9	+2.7	21
3	Hammarby	11	6	1	4	+6	+3.0	19
4	Sirius	11	5	2	4	-1	-2.0	17
5	Brommapojkarna	12	4	4	4	+2	+0.0	16
6	Varnamo	10	4	3	3	+4	-2.7	15
7	Hacken	10	4	3	3	+0	-0.5	15
8	AIK	11	4	2	5	-11	-0.7	14
9	Mjallby	11	4	1	6	-4	-1.6	13
10	GAIS	11	4	1	6	-6	-4.5	13
11	Goteborg	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.2	11
12	Kalmar	11	3	1	7	-11	-6.0	10
13	Vasteras SK	10	2	2	6	-5	+1.6	8
14	Elfsborg	10	2	2	6	-7	+0.2	8
15	Norrkoping	10	2	2	6	-12	-2.9	8
16	Halmstad	11	2	0	9	-19	-5.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.