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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Chaves

S T U S U

1–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

31%

38%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

34%

38%

Both score Ø 45%

52%

38%

Average goals

2,2

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 11. · Casa Pia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	24	2	3	+52	74
2	Sp Braga	30	23	2	5	+41	71
3	Porto	29	22	4	3	+43	70
4	Sp Lisbon	29	19	4	6	+32	61
5	Arouca	30	13	9	8	-1	48
6	Guimaraes	30	13	5	12	-7	44
7	Famalicao	29	13	3	13	-4	42
8	Vizela	29	11	6	12	+2	39
9	Casa Pia	29	11	6	12	-6	39
10	Rio Ave	30	10	8	12	-4	38
11	Chaves	29	9	10	10	-5	37
12	Boavista	29	10	7	12	-12	37
13	Portimonense	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Gil Vicente	29	8	7	14	-8	31
15	Estoril	29	7	4	18	-22	25
16	Maritimo	30	6	4	20	-29	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	29	4	5	20	-30	17
18	Santa Clara	29	3	7	19	-26	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+28	36
3	Sp Braga	15	11	2	2	+24	35
4	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+28	34
5	Arouca	15	9	2	4	+5	29
6	Famalicao	15	9	1	5	+5	28
7	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	+2	27
8	Rio Ave	15	8	2	5	+5	26
9	Boavista	15	7	5	3	+1	26
10	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	+1	21
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Vizela	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+0	18
14	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Santa Clara	15	2	5	8	-13	11
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	2	2	11	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	15	12	0	3	+17	36
2	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+20	34
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Vizela	15	6	3	6	+1	21
6	Chaves	15	5	5	5	-4	20
7	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
8	Casa Pia	14	5	3	6	-7	18
9	Guimaraes	15	5	2	8	-9	17
10	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	1	10	-8	13
12	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-9	12
13	Portimonense	15	4	0	11	-15	12
14	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-11	11
15	Boavista	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Santa Clara	14	1	2	11	-13	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.