Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Valladolid
Ponferradina
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Almeria
|
40 | 24 | 7 | 9 | +33 | 79 |
| 2 |
Eibar
|
39 | 21 | 11 | 7 | +14 | 74 |
| 3 |
Valladolid
|
39 | 21 | 9 | 9 | +22 | 72 |
| 4 |
Tenerife
|
39 | 20 | 9 | 10 | +21 | 69 |
| 5 |
Oviedo
|
39 | 16 | 16 | 7 | +16 | 64 |
| 6 |
Girona
|
39 | 19 | 7 | 13 | +14 | 64 |
| 7 |
Ponferradina
|
39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | +8 | 63 |
| 8 |
Las Palmas
|
39 | 16 | 13 | 10 | +6 | 61 |
| 9 |
Cartagena
|
40 | 16 | 6 | 18 | +0 | 54 |
| 10 |
Ibiza
|
39 | 12 | 16 | 11 | +0 | 52 |
| 11 |
Huesca
|
40 | 12 | 15 | 13 | +7 | 51 |
| 12 |
Burgos
|
40 | 14 | 9 | 17 | -1 | 51 |
| 13 |
Leganes
|
39 | 12 | 14 | 13 | -3 | 50 |
| 14 |
Zaragoza
|
39 | 10 | 19 | 10 | -9 | 49 |
| 15 |
Lugo
|
40 | 9 | 20 | 11 | -6 | 47 |
| 16 |
Mirandes
|
39 | 13 | 7 | 19 | -10 | 46 |
| 17 |
Sp Gijon
|
39 | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 42 |
| 18 |
Malaga
|
39 | 10 | 12 | 17 | -21 | 42 |
| 19 |
Amorebieta
|
40 | 8 | 16 | 16 | -15 | 40 |
| 20 |
Sociedad B
|
40 | 10 | 10 | 20 | -16 | 40 |
| 21 |
Fuenlabrada
|
40 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -22 | 32 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
39 | 5 | 10 | 24 | -33 | 25 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Eibar
Valladolid
Valladolid
Sociedad B
Mirandes
Valladolid
Valladolid
Almeria
Malaga
Valladolid
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.