Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Zaragoza
Malaga
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Almeria
|
26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | +20 | 49 |
| 2 |
Eibar
|
25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 |
Valladolid
|
25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | +12 | 47 |
| 4 |
Tenerife
|
25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | +16 | 45 |
| 5 |
Ponferradina
|
25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | +8 | 41 |
| 6 |
Cartagena
|
25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | +1 | 39 |
| 7 |
Girona
|
25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | +5 | 38 |
| 8 |
Oviedo
|
25 | 8 | 12 | 5 | +4 | 36 |
| 9 |
Las Palmas
|
25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 36 |
| 10 |
Ibiza
|
26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 35 |
| 11 |
Burgos
|
26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | +4 | 35 |
| 12 |
Lugo
|
26 | 7 | 14 | 5 | +3 | 35 |
| 13 |
Sp Gijon
|
25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 32 |
| 14 |
Malaga
|
25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -15 | 31 |
| 15 |
Huesca
|
25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | +2 | 30 |
| 16 |
Mirandes
|
25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 30 |
| 17 |
Leganes
|
25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 29 |
| 18 |
Zaragoza
|
25 | 5 | 14 | 6 | -6 | 29 |
| 19 |
Amorebieta
|
25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | -7 | 24 |
| 20 |
Fuenlabrada
|
25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 23 |
| 21 |
Sociedad B
|
26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
26 | 2 | 6 | 18 | -31 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Ibiza
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Valladolid
Ponferradina
Zaragoza
Mirandes
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Tenerife
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.