Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lecce
|
20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | +17 | 40 |
| 2 |
Pisa
|
20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +12 | 39 |
| 3 |
Brescia
|
20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | +12 | 38 |
| 4 |
Benevento
|
20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | +13 | 35 |
| 5 |
Cremonese
|
20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 |
Monza
|
20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | +7 | 35 |
| 7 |
Frosinone
|
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | +14 | 34 |
| 8 |
Ascoli
|
20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 32 |
| 9 |
Cittadella
|
20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | +3 | 31 |
| 10 |
Perugia
|
20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | +2 | 28 |
| 11 |
Como
|
20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +1 | 26 |
| 12 |
Parma
|
20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | -1 | 24 |
| 13 |
Ternana
|
20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 14 |
Reggina
|
20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -9 | 20 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
| 18 |
Crotone
|
20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |
Vicenza
|
20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -17 | 11 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 11 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Vicenza
Benevento
Parma
Reggina
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.