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Serie B

Referee: F Dionisi

Mantova

U U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Bari

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Bari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 21%

23%

18%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

45%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,62 xG 0,44

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 28

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mantova 18. · Bari 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	22	14	5	3	+25	+22.3	47
2	Frosinone	22	13	7	2	+21	+3.0	46
3	Monza	22	13	5	4	+16	+7.5	44
4	Palermo	22	11	8	3	+19	+7.4	41
5	Cesena	23	11	4	8	+4	+5.8	37
6	Modena	22	9	7	6	+11	+5.4	34
7	Juve Stabia	22	8	10	4	+1	+1.2	34
8	Catanzaro	22	8	8	6	+2	-0.7	32
9	Carrarese	22	7	8	7	-1	-7.6	29
10	Sudtirol	22	6	10	6	+1	-5.0	28
11	Empoli	22	7	7	8	-2	+0.5	28
12	Avellino	22	7	7	8	-8	-9.1	28
13	Padova	22	6	7	9	-6	-4.0	25
14	Sampdoria	22	5	7	10	-7	+0.1	22
15	Reggiana	22	5	6	11	-7	-2.9	21
16	Virtus Entella	22	4	9	9	-10	-4.9	21
17	Spezia	22	5	5	12	-10	+1.9	20
18	Mantova	22	5	5	12	-14	-3.7	20
19	Bari	22	4	8	10	-16	-12.3	20
20	Pescara	23	2	9	12	-19	-5.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	11	10	0	1	+19	+11.7	30
2	Monza	11	8	2	1	+12	+4.5	26
3	Palermo	11	7	3	1	+13	+4.5	24
4	Frosinone	10	7	2	1	+14	+2.7	23
5	Juve Stabia	11	6	5	0	+8	+1.9	23
6	Catanzaro	11	5	5	1	+5	+1.6	20
7	Carrarese	11	5	4	2	+7	+2.3	19
8	Modena	11	5	3	3	+7	-1.3	18
9	Cesena	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.8	18
10	Virtus Entella	11	4	6	1	+4	-0.6	18
11	Sampdoria	11	5	3	3	+3	+1.6	18
12	Avellino	11	5	3	3	-1	-6.4	18
13	Sudtirol	11	5	2	4	+4	-3.3	17
14	Empoli	12	3	7	2	+5	+3.0	16
15	Reggiana	11	3	4	4	+0	-1.9	13
16	Bari	11	3	4	4	-3	-7.3	13
17	Spezia	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.2	12
18	Padova	11	2	5	4	-2	-4.1	11
19	Pescara	12	2	5	5	-3	-3.2	11
20	Mantova	11	3	2	6	-8	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	12	6	5	1	+7	+0.3	23
2	Cesena	12	6	1	5	-1	+0.0	19
3	Monza	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.9	18
4	Venezia	11	4	5	2	+6	+10.6	17
5	Palermo	11	4	5	2	+6	+2.9	17
6	Modena	11	4	4	3	+4	+6.7	16
7	Padova	11	4	2	5	-4	+0.1	14
8	Catanzaro	11	3	3	5	-3	-2.3	12
9	Empoli	10	4	0	6	-7	-2.5	12
10	Sudtirol	11	1	8	2	-3	-1.7	11
11	Juve Stabia	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.7	11
12	Avellino	11	2	4	5	-7	-2.6	10
13	Carrarese	11	2	4	5	-8	-9.9	10
14	Mantova	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.7	9
15	Spezia	11	2	2	7	-5	+3.1	8
16	Reggiana	11	2	2	7	-7	-1.0	8
17	Bari	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.0	7
18	Sampdoria	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.5	4
19	Pescara	11	0	4	7	-16	-1.8	4
20	Virtus Entella	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.