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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Nantes

S U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Lyon

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

15%

60%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,76 xG 1,41

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nantes 16. · Lyon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	21	16	1	4	+20	+11.7	49
2	Paris SG	20	15	3	2	+27	+17.6	48
3	Marseille	20	12	3	5	+24	+13.1	39
4	Lyon	20	12	3	5	+13	+9.7	39
5	Lille	21	10	3	8	+4	+6.1	33
6	Rennes	21	8	7	6	-3	+0.2	31
7	Strasbourg	20	9	3	8	+8	+7.4	30
8	Toulouse	20	8	6	6	+8	+1.4	30
9	Lorient	21	7	7	7	-6	-0.5	28
10	Monaco	20	8	3	9	-1	+4.9	27
11	Angers	20	7	5	8	-4	-12.9	26
12	Brest	21	7	5	9	-5	+2.1	26
13	Nice	20	6	4	10	-11	-11.2	22
14	Paris FC	20	5	6	9	-8	-7.0	21
15	Le Havre	20	4	8	8	-9	-5.7	20
16	Nantes	20	3	5	12	-17	-11.8	14
17	Auxerre	20	3	4	13	-15	-7.3	13
18	Metz	21	3	4	14	-25	-17.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	11	10	0	1	+16	+12.7	30
2	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
3	Lyon	10	8	0	2	+10	+9.6	24
4	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	+8.8	23
5	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.1	19
6	Lille	10	6	1	3	+5	+6.8	19
7	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+4	+6.7	19
8	Lorient	10	5	4	1	+4	+4.2	19
9	Rennes	10	5	3	2	+8	+8.5	18
10	Brest	11	5	3	3	+3	+9.1	18
11	Angers	10	5	2	3	+3	-2.2	17
12	Toulouse	11	4	4	3	+4	+3.5	16
13	Nice	10	4	3	3	+0	-1.6	15
14	Le Havre	10	3	5	2	+2	+6.2	14
15	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-2	+1.8	10
16	Paris FC	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.8	10
17	Metz	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	10	1	2	7	-11	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	7	2	2	+9	+7.5	23
2	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	-1.0	19
3	Marseille	10	5	1	4	+8	+4.2	16
4	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+3	+0.1	15
5	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.1	14
6	Lille	11	4	2	5	-1	-0.7	14
7	Rennes	11	3	4	4	-11	-8.3	13
8	Strasbourg	10	3	2	5	-2	-3.7	11
9	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-5	-6.2	11
10	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.1	9
11	Angers	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.7	9
12	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-10	-4.7	9
13	Monaco	9	2	2	5	-5	-1.8	8
14	Brest	10	2	2	6	-8	-6.9	8
15	Nice	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
16	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
17	Metz	11	1	1	9	-19	-14.0	4
18	Auxerre	10	0	3	7	-13	-9.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.