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Serie B

Referee: Daniele Perenzoni

Mantova

T T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Palermo

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Palermo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 36%

22%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

44%

39%

Both score Ø 42%

44%

39%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,27 xG 1,91

64% Possession 36%

7 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mantova 19. · Palermo 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	19	12	5	2	+20	+4.8	41
2	Venezia	19	11	5	3	+19	+13.4	38
3	Monza	19	11	4	4	+12	+6.5	37
4	Palermo	18	9	6	3	+15	+2.2	33
5	Catanzaro	19	8	7	4	+5	+1.3	31
6	Cesena	19	9	4	6	+4	+3.0	31
7	Modena	18	8	5	5	+11	+3.7	29
8	Empoli	19	7	6	6	+2	+1.3	27
9	Juve Stabia	19	6	9	4	-1	-1.6	27
10	Avellino	19	6	7	6	-8	-7.3	25
11	Carrarese	19	5	8	6	-4	-6.0	23
12	Padova	18	5	7	6	-3	-1.9	22
13	Reggiana	19	5	5	9	-5	-2.2	20
14	Sudtirol	19	3	10	6	-4	-3.3	19
15	Virtus Entella	19	4	7	8	-9	-5.1	19
16	Sampdoria	19	4	5	10	-8	+1.0	17
17	Spezia	19	4	5	10	-9	+0.6	17
18	Bari	19	3	8	8	-13	-5.0	17
19	Mantova	18	4	3	11	-12	-2.2	15
20	Pescara	19	2	8	9	-12	-3.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	9	8	0	1	+16	+5.1	24
2	Monza	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.5	22
3	Palermo	10	6	3	1	+12	+4.5	21
4	Frosinone	9	6	2	1	+13	+2.4	20
5	Juve Stabia	10	5	5	0	+7	+1.4	20
6	Catanzaro	10	5	4	1	+5	+1.6	19
7	Modena	10	5	2	3	+7	-1.2	17
8	Virtus Entella	10	4	5	1	+4	-1.3	17
9	Carrarese	10	4	4	2	+4	+1.3	16
10	Empoli	10	3	6	1	+6	+2.8	15
11	Cesena	9	4	3	2	+4	+4.2	15
12	Avellino	9	4	3	2	-2	-5.1	15
13	Sampdoria	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.5	14
14	Bari	9	3	4	2	+1	-1.6	13
15	Reggiana	9	3	3	3	+1	-1.5	12
16	Sudtirol	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
17	Pescara	10	2	4	4	-1	-0.9	10
18	Mantova	9	3	1	5	-5	+3.0	10
19	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.7	9
20	Padova	8	1	5	2	-2	-2.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	10	6	3	1	+7	+2.4	21
2	Cesena	10	5	1	4	+0	-1.2	16
3	Monza	10	4	3	3	+3	+2.9	15
4	Venezia	10	3	5	2	+3	+8.3	14
5	Padova	10	4	2	4	-1	+0.1	14
6	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
7	Palermo	8	3	3	2	+3	-2.2	12
8	Catanzaro	9	3	3	3	+0	-0.3	12
9	Empoli	9	4	0	5	-4	-1.5	12
10	Avellino	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.2	10
11	Spezia	9	2	2	5	-3	+2.3	8
12	Sudtirol	10	0	8	2	-4	-1.5	8
13	Reggiana	10	2	2	6	-6	-0.7	8
14	Carrarese	9	1	4	4	-8	-7.3	7
15	Juve Stabia	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.0	7
16	Mantova	9	1	2	6	-7	-5.2	5
17	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	-2.3	4
18	Bari	10	0	4	6	-14	-3.4	4
19	Sampdoria	10	0	3	7	-10	-1.5	3
20	Virtus Entella	9	0	2	7	-13	-3.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.