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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Freiburg

U S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 28%

35%

20%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

65%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

65%

45%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,46 xG 0,97

33% Possession 67%

7 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Werder Bremen 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	16	3	1	+56	+39.4	51
2	Dortmund	20	13	6	1	+22	+14.9	45
3	Hoffenheim	20	13	3	4	+20	+2.6	42
4	Stuttgart	20	12	3	5	+11	+5.5	39
5	RB Leipzig	20	11	3	6	+11	+7.2	36
6	Leverkusen	19	11	2	6	+12	+10.5	35
7	Ein Frankfurt	21	7	7	7	-5	-3.1	28
8	Freiburg	20	7	6	7	-2	+4.2	27
9	Union Berlin	21	6	7	8	-8	+1.7	25
10	FC Koln	20	6	5	9	-3	-3.1	23
11	Augsburg	20	6	4	10	-13	-13.9	22
12	M'gladbach	20	5	6	9	-9	-5.0	21
13	Hamburg	19	4	7	8	-10	-5.5	19
14	Wolfsburg	20	5	4	11	-14	-9.5	19
15	Werder Bremen	20	4	7	9	-16	-9.7	19
16	Mainz	20	4	6	10	-10	-10.4	18
17	St Pauli	20	3	5	12	-16	-13.0	14
18	Heidenheim	20	3	4	13	-26	-12.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	8	2	0	+14	+11.3	26
2	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+31	+19.2	25
3	Stuttgart	10	7	2	1	+3	+2.7	23
4	Hoffenheim	10	7	0	3	+11	+2.7	21
5	RB Leipzig	10	7	0	3	+10	+5.9	21
6	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
7	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+7	+9.9	18
8	Hamburg	10	4	4	2	+4	+2.0	16
9	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-5	-8.1	15
10	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+3	+2.9	14
11	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.5	14
12	Union Berlin	11	3	5	3	-1	+3.1	14
13	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-6	+3.1	13
14	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
15	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-5	-3.1	9
16	St Pauli	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.9	9
17	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.2	9
18	Heidenheim	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	2	0	+25	+20.2	26
2	Hoffenheim	10	6	3	1	+9	-0.2	21
3	Dortmund	10	5	4	1	+8	+3.6	19
4	Stuttgart	10	5	1	4	+8	+2.8	16
5	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.9	16
6	RB Leipzig	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.2	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	5	3	-4	-5.6	14
8	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.8	12
9	Union Berlin	10	3	2	5	-7	-1.4	11
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	1	6	-9	-6.3	10
11	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.0	9
12	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.8	9
13	Freiburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.7	9
14	Augsburg	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.7	7
15	Werder Bremen	10	1	3	6	-10	-12.8	6
16	St Pauli	11	1	2	8	-9	-10.1	5
17	Heidenheim	10	1	1	8	-14	-5.2	4
18	Hamburg	9	0	3	6	-14	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.