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Serie B
Referee: A Rapuano
Bari
T U T T S
0–3
Full-time
Palermo
U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Palermo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,7
1,5
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie B · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 34%
19%
48%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
43%
33%
Both score Ø 48%
57%
38%
Average goals
2,3
2,1
Scored
0,9
1,4
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,38 xG 3,74
50% Possession 50%
7 Shots 22
1 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bari 17. · Palermo 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Frosinone 21 13 6 2 +21 +3.7 45
2 Venezia 21 13 5 3 +24 +19.2 44
3 Monza 21 12 5 4 +15 +7.5 41
4 Palermo 21 10 8 3 +16 +4.0 38
5 Cesena 21 10 4 7 +4 +5.0 34
6 Modena 21 9 6 6 +11 +5.4 33
7 Juve Stabia 21 8 9 4 +1 +1.2 33
8 Catanzaro 21 8 8 5 +3 -2.2 32
9 Carrarese 21 7 8 6 +0 -4.5 29
10 Empoli 21 7 6 8 -2 +0.4 27
11 Sudtirol 21 5 10 6 +0 -3.5 25
12 Padova 21 6 7 8 -5 -4.0 25
13 Avellino 21 6 7 8 -10 -8.3 25
14 Reggiana 21 5 5 11 -7 -2.9 20
15 Spezia 21 5 5 11 -9 +1.1 20
16 Virtus Entella 21 4 8 9 -10 -5.6 20
17 Bari 21 4 8 9 -13 -8.9 20
18 Sampdoria 21 4 7 10 -8 +1.0 19
19 Mantova 21 5 4 12 -14 -5.9 19
20 Pescara 21 2 8 11 -17 -2.7 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bari Palermo
Raffaele Pucino 🟨
26′
Giacomo Stabile 🟨
32′
38′
🟨 Antonio Palumbo
Half-time 0–0
L. Dickmann 🔁
↦ E. Rao
46′
57′
J. Le Douaron 0–1
P. Ceccaroni
N. Cavuoti 🔁
↦ M. Mane
63′
M. Cuni 🔁
↦ G. De Pieri
63′
Lorenzo Dickmann 🟨
65′
65′
🟨 Jérémy Le Douaron
67′
J. Pohjanpalo 0–2
A. Palumbo
70′
🔁 E. Gyasi
↦ J. Le Douaron
71′
🟨 Niccolò Pierozzi
74′
🔁 C. Gomes
↦ A. Palumbo
74′
🔁 B. Bereszynski
↦ N. Pierozzi
74′
🔁 G. Corona
↦ J. Pohjanpalo
C. Gytkjaer 🔁
↦ G. Moncini
76′
T. Esteves 🔁
↦ M. Braunoder
76′
82′
F. Ranocchia 0–3
84′
🔁 A. Vasic
↦ M. Bani
88′
🟨 Bartosz Bereszyński
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Bari

3-4-2-1
31 M. Cerofolini G
51 A. Cistana D
25 R. Pucino D
37 G. Stabile
30 M. Mane
29 M. Verreth M
27 M. Braunoder M
93 M. Dorval M
49 G. De Pieri F
17 E. Rao
11 G. Moncini F
Bench (12)
1 M. Pissardo
3 R. Burgio
8 R. Pagano
9 C. Gytkjaer
10 N. Bellomo
13 A. Meroni
15 S. Kassama
19 T. Esteves
20 N. Cavuoti
24 L. Dickmann
32 V. Colangiuli
90 M. Cuni

Coach: Moreno Longo

Palermo

3-4-2-1
66 J. Joronen G
29 P. Peda D
13 M. Bani D
32 P. Ceccaroni D
27 N. Pierozzi M
8 J. Segre M
10 F. Ranocchia M
3 T. Augello M
5 A. Palumbo F
21 J. Le Douaron F
20 J. Pohjanpalo F
Bench (9)
1 A. Gomis
77 F. Di Bartolo
6 C. Gomes
11 E. Gyasi
14 A. Vasic
17 S. Giovane
19 B. Bereszynski
28 A. Blin
31 G. Corona

Coach: Filippo Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,37
U
3,17
B ✓
1,84
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,21
U2,5
1,59
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Rapuano · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.