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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Newcastle

S T U T T

2–3

Full-time

Brentford

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

38%

46%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,24 xG 1,79

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 12. · Brentford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	25	17	5	3	+32	+27.4	56
2	Man City	24	14	5	5	+26	+16.7	47
3	Aston Villa	25	14	5	6	+9	-4.6	47
4	Man United	25	12	8	5	+10	+13.9	44
5	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+17	+12.1	43
6	Liverpool	24	11	6	7	+6	+11.8	39
7	Everton	25	10	7	8	+0	-9.0	37
8	Brentford	24	11	3	10	+4	+5.1	36
9	Sunderland	25	9	9	7	-2	-12.8	36
10	Fulham	25	10	4	11	-2	-6.4	34
11	Bournemouth	25	8	10	7	-3	+4.8	34
12	Newcastle	24	9	6	9	+0	+7.7	33
13	Brighton	24	7	10	7	+2	+3.1	31
14	Tottenham	25	7	8	10	+0	-9.3	29
15	Crystal Palace	24	7	8	9	-4	+5.8	29
16	Leeds	25	7	8	10	-9	-0.1	29
17	Nott'm Forest	25	7	5	13	-13	-10.2	26
18	West Ham	25	6	5	14	-17	-14.9	23
19	Burnley	25	3	6	16	-24	-28.0	15
20	Wolves	25	1	5	19	-32	-13.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
2	Man City	12	9	2	1	+21	+12.5	29
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
4	Sunderland	12	7	5	0	+12	-1.5	26
5	Aston Villa	12	8	1	3	+8	+2.5	25
6	Brentford	12	7	3	2	+11	+7.2	24
7	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+8	+10.9	24
8	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
9	Bournemouth	13	6	5	2	+6	+9.8	23
10	Newcastle	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.9	23
11	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+4	+6.8	22
12	Brighton	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.0	21
13	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.1	21
14	Everton	12	4	4	4	-1	-2.6	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	2	6	4	-4	+6.7	12
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-5	-0.9	12
17	Tottenham	12	2	4	6	-1	-1.8	10
18	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-7	-10.6	10
19	West Ham	12	3	1	8	-10	-4.9	10
20	Wolves	13	1	2	10	-17	-5.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	+11.6	24
2	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
3	Aston Villa	13	6	4	3	+1	-7.1	22
4	Everton	13	6	3	4	+1	-6.5	21
5	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
6	Man City	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.2	18
7	Man United	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.8	17
8	Crystal Palace	12	5	2	5	+0	-0.9	17
9	Liverpool	12	4	3	5	-2	+0.9	15
10	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
11	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.9	13
12	Brentford	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.2	12
13	Fulham	12	3	2	7	-8	-5.1	11
14	Bournemouth	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
15	Brighton	12	2	4	6	-5	-0.9	10
16	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-5	-1.2	10
17	Sunderland	13	2	4	7	-14	-11.3	10
18	Leeds	12	1	4	7	-13	-6.9	7
19	Burnley	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.4	5
20	Wolves	12	0	3	9	-15	-7.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.