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Bundesliga

Referee: Christian Dingert

M'gladbach

S T U T U

1–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

25%

58%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

55%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

35%

58%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,71 xG 0,79

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 14. · Leverkusen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	16	3	1	+56	+39.4	51
2	Dortmund	21	14	6	1	+23	+14.7	48
3	Hoffenheim	20	13	3	4	+20	+2.6	42
4	Stuttgart	21	12	3	6	+10	+4.4	39
5	RB Leipzig	20	11	3	6	+11	+7.2	36
6	Leverkusen	19	11	2	6	+12	+10.5	35
7	Freiburg	21	8	6	7	-1	+3.7	30
8	Ein Frankfurt	21	7	7	7	-5	-3.1	28
9	Union Berlin	21	6	7	8	-8	+1.7	25
10	FC Koln	20	6	5	9	-3	-3.1	23
11	Hamburg	20	5	7	8	-8	-5.5	22
12	Augsburg	21	6	4	11	-15	-15.6	22
13	Mainz	21	5	6	10	-8	-8.6	21
14	M'gladbach	20	5	6	9	-9	-5.0	21
15	Wolfsburg	21	5	4	12	-15	-9.2	19
16	Werder Bremen	21	4	7	10	-17	-9.2	19
17	St Pauli	21	4	5	12	-15	-11.9	17
18	Heidenheim	21	3	4	14	-28	-12.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	8	2	0	+14	+11.3	26
2	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+31	+19.2	25
3	Stuttgart	10	7	2	1	+3	+2.7	23
4	Hoffenheim	10	7	0	3	+11	+2.7	21
5	RB Leipzig	10	7	0	3	+10	+5.9	21
6	Freiburg	10	6	3	1	+8	+9.4	21
7	Leverkusen	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.3	19
8	Hamburg	10	4	4	2	+4	+2.0	16
9	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-5	-8.1	15
10	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+3	+2.9	14
11	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.5	14
12	Union Berlin	11	3	5	3	-1	+3.1	14
13	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-6	+3.1	13
14	Mainz	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.1	12
15	St Pauli	10	3	3	4	-6	-1.8	12
16	Wolfsburg	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.9	9
17	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.2	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-14	-7.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	2	0	+25	+20.2	26
2	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	+3.4	22
3	Hoffenheim	10	6	3	1	+9	-0.2	21
4	Stuttgart	11	5	1	5	+7	+1.7	16
5	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.9	16
6	RB Leipzig	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.2	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	5	3	-4	-5.6	14
8	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.8	12
9	Union Berlin	10	3	2	5	-7	-1.4	11
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	1	6	-9	-6.3	10
11	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.0	9
12	Mainz	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.8	9
13	Freiburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.7	9
14	Augsburg	10	2	1	7	-10	-7.4	7
15	Werder Bremen	11	1	3	7	-11	-12.3	6
16	Hamburg	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.5	6
17	St Pauli	11	1	2	8	-9	-10.1	5
18	Heidenheim	10	1	1	8	-14	-5.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.