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La Liga

Referee: M Busquets

Celta

S U U S S

3–0

Full-time

Vallecano

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

37%

26%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

26%

32%

Both score Ø 50%

63%

37%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,87 xG 1,11

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Celta 7. · Vallecano 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	16	1	2	+33	+18.5	49
2	Real Madrid	20	15	3	2	+26	+25.8	48
3	Villarreal	19	13	2	4	+18	+8.3	41
4	Ath Madrid	20	12	5	3	+18	+9.0	41
5	Espanol	20	10	4	6	+1	+5.0	34
6	Betis	20	8	8	4	+8	+6.2	32
7	Celta	19	7	8	4	+5	-0.8	29
8	Ath Bilbao	20	7	3	10	-9	+5.8	24
9	Girona	20	6	6	8	-14	-11.3	24
10	Elche	19	5	8	6	+1	-6.8	23
11	Osasuna	20	6	4	10	-3	-3.5	22
12	Vallecano	19	5	7	7	-6	+2.4	22
13	Sociedad	19	5	6	8	-3	+1.4	21
14	Mallorca	20	5	6	9	-6	-11.6	21
15	Getafe	20	6	3	11	-11	-7.3	21
16	Sevilla	19	6	2	11	-6	-11.2	20
17	Valencia	20	4	8	8	-12	-2.3	20
18	Alaves	20	5	4	11	-9	-3.0	19
19	Levante	19	3	5	11	-11	-9.0	14
20	Oviedo	20	2	7	11	-20	-15.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+16	+12.8	28
2	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
3	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+17	+15.6	27
4	Villarreal	10	8	1	1	+16	+6.8	25
5	Osasuna	10	6	2	2	+7	+2.1	20
6	Betis	10	6	1	3	+9	+5.9	19
7	Elche	10	5	4	1	+9	+2.7	19
8	Espanol	11	6	1	4	-1	+2.1	19
9	Mallorca	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.8	16
10	Ath Bilbao	10	5	1	4	-1	+7.2	16
11	Alaves	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.5	15
12	Valencia	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.5	14
13	Vallecano	9	2	6	1	+1	+5.9	12
14	Girona	10	3	3	4	-8	-7.6	12
15	Celta	10	2	5	3	+0	+0.6	11
16	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.7	11
17	Getafe	10	3	2	5	-1	-4.2	11
18	Sevilla	10	3	1	6	-2	-1.4	10
19	Oviedo	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.2	8
20	Levante	8	0	3	5	-10	-6.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	7	1	2	+10	+3.9	22
2	Real Madrid	10	6	3	1	+9	+10.2	21
3	Celta	9	5	3	1	+5	-1.4	18
4	Villarreal	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.5	16
5	Espanol	9	4	3	2	+2	+2.9	15
6	Ath Madrid	10	3	4	3	+2	-3.8	13
7	Betis	10	2	7	1	-1	+0.2	13
8	Girona	10	3	3	4	-6	-3.7	12
9	Levante	11	3	2	6	-1	-2.1	11
10	Sociedad	10	2	4	4	-2	-1.2	10
11	Sevilla	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.8	10
12	Vallecano	10	3	1	6	-7	-3.4	10
13	Getafe	10	3	1	6	-10	-3.1	10
14	Ath Bilbao	10	2	2	6	-8	-1.4	8
15	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-15	-9.7	6
16	Mallorca	10	1	2	7	-7	-10.8	5
17	Oviedo	10	1	2	7	-12	-6.4	5
18	Elche	9	0	4	5	-8	-9.5	4
19	Alaves	10	1	1	8	-11	-4.6	4
20	Osasuna	10	0	2	8	-10	-5.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.