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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Lyon

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Brest

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

53%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

59%

Both score Ø 44%

41%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,98 xG 0,68

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 6. · Brest 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	14	1	3	+19	+10.5	43
2	Paris SG	18	13	3	2	+25	+16.7	42
3	Marseille	18	11	2	5	+22	+12.0	35
4	Lille	18	10	2	6	+8	+6.4	32
5	Rennes	18	8	7	3	+5	+1.3	31
6	Lyon	17	9	3	5	+8	+7.1	30
7	Strasbourg	18	8	3	7	+6	+5.2	27
8	Toulouse	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.2	26
9	Monaco	18	7	2	9	-5	+2.8	23
10	Brest	17	6	4	7	-4	+1.3	22
11	Angers	18	6	4	8	-5	-13.8	22
12	Lorient	18	5	7	6	-7	+1.9	22
13	Paris FC	18	5	4	9	-8	-6.0	19
14	Le Havre	18	4	7	7	-8	-4.0	19
15	Nice	18	5	3	10	-14	-10.3	18
16	Nantes	18	3	5	10	-13	-13.2	14
17	Auxerre	18	3	3	12	-14	-5.6	12
18	Metz	18	3	3	12	-21	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
2	Lens	9	8	0	1	+13	+11.5	24
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	+8.9	20
4	Strasbourg	9	6	1	2	+11	+10.1	19
5	Lille	9	6	1	2	+8	+8.1	19
6	Rennes	9	5	3	1	+10	+8.0	18
7	Lyon	8	6	0	2	+8	+8.3	18
8	Lorient	9	4	4	1	+3	+5.1	16
9	Monaco	10	5	1	4	+0	+4.8	16
10	Toulouse	10	4	3	3	+4	+3.7	15
11	Brest	9	4	3	2	+3	+7.4	15
12	Angers	9	4	2	3	+2	-3.2	14
13	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
14	Le Havre	9	3	4	2	+2	+6.4	13
15	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-1	+3.7	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	9	1	2	6	-8	-7.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	-1.0	19
2	Paris SG	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.5	17
3	Marseille	9	5	0	4	+8	+3.1	15
4	Lille	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.7	13
5	Rennes	9	3	4	2	-5	-6.8	13
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+0	-1.2	12
7	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
8	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-5	-6.2	11
9	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-5	-6.0	9
10	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.0	8
11	Angers	9	2	2	5	-7	-10.6	8
12	Monaco	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.1	7
13	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
14	Lorient	9	1	3	5	-10	-3.3	6
15	Le Havre	9	1	3	5	-10	-10.4	6
16	Nice	9	1	1	7	-14	-9.2	4
17	Metz	10	1	1	8	-18	-13.0	4
18	Auxerre	9	0	2	7	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.