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Serie B

Referee: F Fourneau

Palermo

S T S S S

2–2

Full-time

Spezia

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Palermo Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,3

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Palermo 3. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Catanzaro	10	6	3	1	+5	21
3	Palermo	8	6	1	1	+10	19
4	Venezia	10	5	3	2	+5	18
5	Cosenza	10	4	2	4	+3	14
6	Como	9	4	2	3	+0	14
7	Brescia	7	3	4	0	+4	13
8	Sudtirol	9	3	4	2	+3	13
9	Cremonese	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	Modena	9	3	4	2	+0	13
11	Cittadella	10	3	4	3	-3	13
12	Ascoli	10	3	3	4	+0	12
13	Pisa	9	3	3	3	+0	12
14	Bari	10	1	8	1	+0	11
15	Reggiana	10	2	5	3	-4	11
16	Sampdoria	10	2	3	5	-3	9
17	Ternana	10	1	3	6	-4	6
18	Spezia	8	1	3	4	-5	6
19	FeralpiSalo	10	1	2	7	-14	5
20	Lecco	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	6	4	2	0	+6	14
2	Venezia	5	3	1	1	+3	10
3	Catanzaro	5	3	1	1	+2	10
4	Cittadella	5	2	2	1	-1	8
5	Cosenza	5	2	1	2	+4	7
6	Ascoli	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Como	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Modena	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Palermo	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Brescia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Reggiana	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Sudtirol	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Ternana	6	1	2	3	+0	5
14	Bari	5	0	5	0	+0	5
15	Pisa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Sampdoria	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Cremonese	6	0	3	3	-3	3
18	Spezia	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	FeralpiSalo	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Lecco	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Catanzaro	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Cremonese	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Parma	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Sudtirol	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Venezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Pisa	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Brescia	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Como	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Cosenza	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Modena	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Sampdoria	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Bari	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Cittadella	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Reggiana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Ascoli	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Spezia	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	FeralpiSalo	6	1	1	4	-10	4
19	Ternana	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Lecco	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.