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Bundesliga
Referee: Deniz Aytekin
Stuttgart
S S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Union Berlin
T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Union Berlin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,5
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 47%
59%
35%
Points per game
1,9
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
76%
59%
Both score Ø 59%
59%
59%
Average goals
3,4
2,9
Scored
1,9
1,4
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,83 xG 1,70
57% Possession 43%
13 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 10
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 8
6 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 5. · Union Berlin 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 18 16 2 0 +57 +38.9 50
2 Dortmund 18 11 6 1 +18 +13.3 39
3 Hoffenheim 17 10 3 4 +14 +3.5 33
4 RB Leipzig 17 10 2 5 +9 +7.5 32
5 Stuttgart 17 10 2 5 +7 +3.9 32
6 Leverkusen 17 9 2 6 +9 +8.8 29
7 Ein Frankfurt 18 7 6 5 -1 -0.9 27
8 Freiburg 17 6 5 6 -2 +4.1 23
9 Union Berlin 17 6 5 6 -3 +0.6 23
10 FC Koln 18 5 5 8 -3 -2.3 20
11 M'gladbach 18 5 5 8 -6 -4.2 20
12 Wolfsburg 18 5 4 9 -11 -6.3 19
13 Werder Bremen 17 4 6 7 -13 -9.6 18
14 Hamburg 17 4 5 8 -10 -5.4 17
15 Augsburg 17 4 3 10 -15 -11.9 15
16 Heidenheim 18 3 4 11 -22 -11.1 13
17 Mainz 18 2 6 10 -13 -14.0 12
18 St Pauli 17 3 3 11 -15 -14.7 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Union Berlin
1′
🟨 Livan Burcu
Josha Vagnoman 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 C. Fuhrich
R. Hendriks
59′
69′
🔁 S. Nsoki
↦ J. Juranovic
69′
🔁 I. Ansah
↦ L. Burcu
E. Demirovic 🔁
↦ N. Nartey
75′
F. Jeltsch 🔁
↦ C. Fuhrich
75′
75′
🔁 Jeong Woo-Yeong
↦ A. Schafer
83′
Jeong Woo-Yeong 1–1
S. Nsoki
L. Assignon 🔁
↦ R. Hendriks
90′
Jeremy Arevalo 🔁
↦ J. Vagnoman
90′
C. Andres 🔁
↦ A. Stiller
90′
92′
🔁 O. Burke
↦ A. Ilic
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Stuttgart

4-4-2
33 A. Nubel G
4 J. Vagnoman D
3 R. Hendriks D
24 J. Chabot D
7 M. Mittelstadt D
18 J. Leweling M
16 A. Karazor M
6 A. Stiller M
10 C. Fuhrich M
26 D. Undav F
28 N. Nartey F
Bench (9)
1 F. Bredlow
2 A. Al Dakhil
9 E. Demirovic
15 P. Stenzel
22 L. Assignon
25 Jeremy Arevalo
27 B. Bouanani
29 F. Jeltsch
30 C. Andres

Coach: Sebastian Hoeness

Union Berlin

3-5-2
1 F. Ronnow G
5 D. Doekhi D
14 L. Querfeld D
4 D. Leite D
19 J. Haberer M
13 A. Schafer M
8 R. Khedira M
6 A. Kemlein M
18 J. Juranovic M
23 A. Ilic F
9 L. Burcu F
Bench (9)
31 M. Raab
28 C. Trimmel
34 S. Nsoki
11 Jeong Woo-Yeong
17 D. Preu
33 A. Kral
7 O. Burke
10 I. Ansah
27 M. Ljubicic

Coach: Steffen Baumgart

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,64
U ✓
3,86
B
4,98
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
1,95
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Deniz Aytekin · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.