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2. Bundesliga

Referee: M Jollenbeck

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

25%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

64%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,10 xG 1,42

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 12. · Holstein Kiel 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	28	16	7	5	+15	+12.6	55
2	Paderborn	28	16	6	6	+16	+13.3	54
3	Elversberg	28	15	7	6	+18	+6.1	52
4	Darmstadt	28	13	11	4	+18	+4.7	50
5	Hannover	28	14	8	6	+12	+13.1	50
6	Hertha	28	13	8	7	+10	-4.5	47
7	Kaiserslautern	28	13	4	11	+7	+0.0	43
8	Nurnberg	28	10	7	11	+0	+0.0	37
9	Karlsruhe	28	10	7	11	-9	-18.1	37
10	Bochum	28	8	9	11	-1	+3.6	33
11	Bielefeld	28	8	7	13	+1	+1.1	31
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	28	9	4	15	-17	-4.8	31
13	Magdeburg	28	9	3	16	-8	+8.1	30
14	Braunschweig	28	8	6	14	-15	-0.3	30
15	Dresden	28	7	8	13	-2	+0.5	29
16	Holstein Kiel	28	7	8	13	-8	-11.3	29
17	Greuther Furth	28	8	5	15	-21	-11.3	29
18	Preußen Münster	28	6	9	13	-16	-12.9	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	14	10	4	0	+19	+8.9	34
2	Schalke 04	14	10	3	1	+10	+6.4	33
3	Kaiserslautern	15	10	1	4	+16	+4.8	31
4	Paderborn	14	9	2	3	+8	+10.6	29
5	Elversberg	13	8	4	1	+12	+4.7	28
6	Nurnberg	14	7	4	3	+8	+2.5	25
7	Karlsruhe	13	7	3	3	+4	-4.2	24
8	Hannover	14	7	3	4	+4	+9.1	24
9	Bochum	14	6	4	4	+5	+8.8	22
10	Bielefeld	14	6	3	5	+8	+12.2	21
11	Hertha	14	5	5	4	-1	-1.1	20
12	Braunschweig	15	5	4	6	-7	+4.1	19
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	5	3	6	-7	-0.9	18
14	Holstein Kiel	14	4	4	6	+0	-0.9	16
15	Greuther Furth	14	4	4	6	-9	-5.7	16
16	Dresden	14	4	3	7	+4	+7.0	15
17	Preußen Münster	14	3	6	5	-3	-4.2	15
18	Magdeburg	14	3	2	9	-7	+7.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hertha	14	8	3	3	+11	-3.5	27
2	Hannover	14	7	5	2	+8	+4.0	26
3	Paderborn	14	7	4	3	+8	+2.7	25
4	Elversberg	15	7	3	5	+6	+1.5	24
5	Schalke 04	14	6	4	4	+5	+6.2	22
6	Magdeburg	14	6	1	7	-1	+1.0	19
7	Darmstadt	14	3	7	4	-1	-4.2	16
8	Dresden	14	3	5	6	-6	-6.5	14
9	Holstein Kiel	14	3	4	7	-8	-10.3	13
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	1	9	-10	-4.0	13
11	Greuther Furth	14	4	1	9	-12	-5.6	13
12	Karlsruhe	15	3	4	8	-13	-14.0	13
13	Nurnberg	14	3	3	8	-8	-2.5	12
14	Kaiserslautern	13	3	3	7	-9	-4.7	12
15	Preußen Münster	14	3	3	8	-13	-8.8	12
16	Bochum	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.2	11
17	Braunschweig	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.3	11
18	Bielefeld	14	2	4	8	-7	-11.1	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.