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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Nott'm Forest

U T S S U

0–1

Full-time

Luton

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Championship · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 32%

30%

34%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

24%

28%

Both score Ø 37%

39%

34%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 16. · Luton 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	33	21	7	5	+22	70
2	Watford	33	17	9	7	+19	60
3	Brentford	31	17	8	6	+25	59
4	Reading	33	16	6	11	+8	54
5	Cardiff	34	15	8	11	+18	53
6	Bournemouth	32	14	10	8	+16	52
7	Swansea	28	15	7	6	+13	52
8	Barnsley	30	15	6	9	+6	51
9	Middlesbrough	34	14	8	12	+4	50
10	Millwall	34	10	16	8	+3	46
11	Stoke	33	11	12	10	+1	45
12	Bristol City	33	14	3	16	-9	45
13	Preston	34	13	4	17	-6	43
14	Luton	32	11	8	13	-10	41
15	Blackburn	32	11	7	14	+8	40
16	Nott'm Forest	33	10	10	13	-4	40
17	QPR	31	10	10	11	-5	40
18	Derby	33	10	8	15	-12	38
19	Huddersfield	34	10	7	17	-12	37
20	Coventry	34	8	11	15	-15	35
21	Birmingham	34	8	11	15	-16	35
22	Sheffield Weds	32	9	7	16	-15	34
23	Rotherham	31	8	5	18	-9	29
24	Wycombe	32	5	8	19	-30	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Bournemouth	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Swansea	16	9	5	2	+10	32
5	Brentford	15	9	4	2	+15	31
6	Barnsley	15	9	3	3	+7	30
7	Huddersfield	17	8	3	6	+7	27
8	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
9	Middlesbrough	17	8	3	6	+2	27
10	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	+12	24
12	Luton	16	6	6	4	+1	24
13	Coventry	17	6	6	5	-1	24
14	Blackburn	16	6	5	5	+5	23
15	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
16	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
17	Millwall	17	4	10	3	+3	22
18	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
19	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
20	Derby	17	5	5	7	-5	20
21	Preston	17	5	3	9	-2	18
22	Rotherham	16	4	3	9	-2	15
23	Wycombe	17	3	5	9	-11	14
24	Birmingham	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+9	35
2	Cardiff	17	8	5	4	+6	29
3	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
4	Reading	17	7	6	4	+4	27
5	Preston	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
7	Middlesbrough	17	6	5	6	+2	23
8	Birmingham	17	5	8	4	+0	23
9	Watford	17	5	7	5	-1	22
10	Bristol City	17	7	1	9	-7	22
11	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
13	Stoke	17	4	8	5	-2	20
14	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	4	8	-5	19
16	QPR	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Derby	16	5	3	8	-7	18
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
19	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Coventry	17	2	5	10	-14	11
22	Sheffield Weds	17	3	2	12	-18	11
23	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-19	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.