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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Middlesbrough

U U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,7

1,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — Championship · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 45%

36%

54%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 18%

21%

15%

Both score Ø 37%

36%

38%

Average goals

1,6

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,6

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

13 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 10. · Swansea 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	8	4	2	+7	28
2	Bournemouth	15	7	6	2	+9	27
3	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+4	27
4	Watford	14	7	5	2	+8	26
5	Reading	14	8	2	4	+5	26
6	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	25
7	Swansea	13	7	4	2	+8	25
8	Stoke	14	6	4	4	+3	22
9	Blackburn	14	6	3	5	+11	21
10	Middlesbrough	14	5	6	3	+5	21
11	Cardiff	15	5	5	5	+7	20
12	Millwall	14	4	8	2	+2	20
13	Barnsley	15	5	4	6	+0	19
14	Preston	15	6	1	8	-3	19
15	Luton	14	5	4	5	-6	19
16	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	QPR	15	4	5	6	-5	17
18	Birmingham	15	3	7	5	-3	16
19	Sheffield Weds	14	3	5	6	-5	14
20	Coventry	15	3	5	7	-10	14
21	Rotherham	15	3	4	8	-6	13
22	Nott'm Forest	14	3	3	8	-8	12
23	Wycombe	14	2	4	8	-13	10
24	Derby	15	1	5	9	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+6	17
3	Reading	7	5	0	2	+3	15
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	QPR	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Cardiff	8	3	2	3	+6	11
9	Blackburn	7	3	2	2	+5	11
10	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+4	11
11	Barnsley	7	3	2	2	+4	11
12	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
13	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+0	11
14	Coventry	7	3	2	2	-3	11
15	Huddersfield	7	3	1	3	+0	10
16	Luton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
17	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	-1	8
18	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-1	8
19	Millwall	7	1	5	1	-1	8
20	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
21	Sheffield Weds	7	1	4	2	-1	7
22	Wycombe	7	1	3	3	-3	6
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-8	3
24	Derby	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	5	1	2	+5	16
2	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Millwall	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+6	10
10	Bournemouth	7	2	4	1	+3	10
11	Luton	7	3	1	3	-4	10
12	Cardiff	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Birmingham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Middlesbrough	7	1	4	2	-1	7
17	Watford	7	1	4	2	-1	7
18	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-4	7
19	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	QPR	7	1	2	4	-6	5
22	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	4
23	Wycombe	7	1	1	5	-10	4
24	Coventry	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.