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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

QPR

T T U S U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 34%

35%

32%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

62%

47%

Both score Ø 59%

62%

56%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 9

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 15. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	34	18	12	4	+26	66
2	Leeds	34	18	8	8	+19	62
3	Fulham	32	16	8	8	+12	56
4	Nott'm Forest	34	15	11	8	+12	56
5	Preston	34	16	8	10	+11	56
6	Bristol City	34	15	8	11	-1	53
7	Blackburn	34	14	9	11	+10	51
8	Swansea	32	13	12	7	+7	51
9	Cardiff	33	12	13	8	+1	49
10	Millwall	34	12	13	9	+1	49
11	Brentford	31	13	8	10	+21	47
12	Sheffield Weds	34	12	9	13	+3	45
13	Derby	34	11	12	11	-4	45
14	Birmingham	34	12	9	13	-7	45
15	QPR	34	12	7	15	-7	43
16	Reading	34	11	9	14	+3	42
17	Hull	34	11	8	15	-5	41
18	Charlton	34	10	9	15	-4	39
19	Stoke	34	11	4	19	-10	37
20	Middlesbrough	34	8	13	13	-10	37
21	Huddersfield	34	9	9	16	-16	36
22	Wigan	34	8	10	16	-16	34
23	Barnsley	34	7	10	17	-17	31
24	Luton	34	9	3	22	-29	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	18	11	3	4	+13	36
2	Derby	18	9	7	2	+12	34
3	Leeds	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Fulham	17	10	2	5	+8	32
5	Cardiff	15	8	6	1	+10	30
6	Blackburn	17	8	6	3	+8	30
7	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
8	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+12	28
9	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+7	28
10	Nott'm Forest	17	8	4	5	+4	28
11	Brentford	15	7	5	3	+13	26
12	Charlton	18	7	5	6	+3	26
13	QPR	17	7	4	6	+3	25
14	Middlesbrough	17	6	7	4	+0	25
15	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	-2	25
16	Stoke	18	7	3	8	+1	24
17	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
18	Wigan	17	6	5	6	-4	23
19	Sheffield Weds	16	6	5	5	-4	23
20	Barnsley	18	5	7	6	-5	22
21	Hull	17	6	3	8	-1	21
22	Luton	16	6	3	7	-1	21
23	Reading	16	6	2	8	+0	20
24	Huddersfield	17	5	5	7	-6	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	18	11	5	2	+14	38
2	Leeds	17	8	4	5	+8	28
3	Nott'm Forest	17	7	7	3	+8	28
4	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+1	28
5	Fulham	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Swansea	15	5	8	2	+0	23
7	Sheffield Weds	18	6	4	8	+7	22
8	Reading	18	5	7	6	+3	22
9	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-7	22
10	Brentford	16	6	3	7	+8	21
11	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	+2	21
12	Preston	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Hull	17	5	5	7	-4	20
14	Millwall	18	4	8	6	-6	20
15	Cardiff	18	4	7	7	-9	19
16	QPR	17	5	3	9	-10	18
17	Huddersfield	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Charlton	16	3	4	9	-7	13
19	Stoke	16	4	1	11	-11	13
20	Middlesbrough	17	2	6	9	-10	12
21	Wigan	17	2	5	10	-12	11
22	Derby	16	2	5	9	-16	11
23	Barnsley	16	2	3	11	-12	9
24	Luton	18	3	0	15	-28	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.