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Bundesliga

Referee: F Brych

Union Berlin

U U T U

3–1

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

0,8

2,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

5,0

Scored

0,5

4,0

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

25% Possession 75%

15 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 2

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 15. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+8	7
3	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	M'gladbach	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Hoffenheim	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	FC Koln	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Hertha	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+5	4
2	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Hertha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Schalke 04	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Hoffenheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Hertha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
18	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.