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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Portimonense

T T T S T

2–2

Full-time

Aves

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

86%

43%

Both score Ø 65%

86%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

21 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portimonense 15. · Aves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+16	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Maritimo	7	5	0	2	+3	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+0	12
6	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Belenenses	7	3	1	3	-2	10
8	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	-6	10
9	Feirense	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Chaves	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	4	2	+0	7
12	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-2	7
13	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-2	6
14	Pacos Ferreira	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Portimonense	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Estoril	7	2	0	5	-6	6
17	Moreirense	7	1	3	3	-7	6
18	Aves	7	1	2	4	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	-2	9
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Belenenses	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Aves	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
5	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
9	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
10	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
12	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-5	3
13	Aves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Guimaraes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Portimonense	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.