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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Belenenses

S T T T S

1–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,2

2,2

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

29%

35%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 24%

18%

29%

Both score Ø 35%

35%

Average goals

1,6

2,0

Scored

0,6

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

15 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

19 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Vitoria Setubal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Porto	18	12	5	1	+26	41
3	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+16	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Maritimo	18	8	3	7	+1	27
7	Chaves	17	5	9	3	+2	24
8	Boavista	18	6	6	6	+0	24
9	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
10	Arouca	18	7	2	9	-5	23
11	Vitoria Setubal	17	6	4	7	+0	22
12	Belenenses	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Feirense	18	5	3	10	-18	18
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
16	Estoril	18	4	3	11	-10	15
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	18	2	4	12	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+16	25
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
7	Chaves	9	3	5	1	+2	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	8	3	3	2	+0	12
13	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
14	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
15	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+6	19
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
14	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.