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Primeira Liga
Referee: Goncalo Martins
1–0
Full-time
Belenenses
T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Belenenses
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
0,7
0,7
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 27%
23%
31%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
54%
23%
Both score Ø 54%
62%
46%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%
7 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 10
2 Offside 1
22 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 14. · Belenenses 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 13 10 2 1 +21 32
2 Porto 14 9 4 1 +20 31
3 Sp Lisbon 13 8 3 2 +12 27
4 Sp Braga 13 8 2 3 +12 26
5 Guimaraes 13 7 3 3 +7 24
6 Rio Ave 13 6 2 5 +1 20
7 Chaves 13 4 7 2 +2 19
8 Belenenses 13 4 5 4 -3 17
9 Maritimo 14 5 2 7 -4 17
10 Vitoria Setubal 13 4 4 5 -1 16
11 Estoril 13 4 3 6 -5 15
12 Arouca 13 4 2 7 -8 14
13 Boavista 13 3 4 6 -4 13
14 Pacos Ferreira 13 3 4 6 -6 13
15 Nacional 13 3 2 8 -8 11
16 Moreirense 13 3 2 8 -8 11
17 Feirense 13 3 2 8 -18 11
18 Tondela 13 2 3 8 -10 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pacos Ferreira Belenenses
Bruno Santos 🟨
30′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Welthon
50′
53′
🔁 Miguel Rosa
↦ Gerso Fernandes
Pedrinho 🟨
57′
Mateus Silva 🔁
↦ Marco Baixinho
61′
65′
🔁 Tiago Caeiro
↦ Vitor Gomes
João Góis 🔁
↦ Filipe Ferreira
72′
Valente 🔁
↦ B. Osei
77′
78′
🔁 H. Yebda
↦ André Sousa
Ricardo 🟨
80′
85′
🟨 João Palhinha
86′
🟨 João Diogo
Ivo Rodrigues 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Pacos Ferreira

4-2-3-1
1 Rafael Defendi G
19 Ricardo D
2 Marco Baixinho D
30 Filipe Ferreira D
3 Pedro Monteiro D
6 Bruno Santos D
12 Pedrinho Moreira M
20 Andrézinho M
7 Welthon F
23 Ivo Rodrigues M
16 B. Osei F
Bench (7)
15 Mateus Silva
13 João Góis
91 Valente
10 Minhoca
17 Gleison
29 Vasco
86 Mário Felgueiras

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Belenenses

4-2-3-1
12 Joel Castro G
2 João Diogo D
29 F. Hanin D
37 Gonçalo Silva D
14 Domingos Duarte D
25 Vitor Gomes M
8 André Sousa M
66 João Palhinha M
30 Camará F
10 Gerso Fernandes F
17 Sturgeon M
Bench (7)
7 Miguel Rosa
9 Tiago Caeiro
23 H. Yebda
21 Benny
24 Hugo Ventura
28 Gonçalo Brandão
76 Mica Pinto

Coach: Quim Machado

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Goncalo Martins · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
34,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.