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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Godinho
3–0
Full-time
Tondela
T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,2
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
1,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 22%
29%
14%
Points per game
1,1
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
29%
43%
Both score Ø 54%
43%
64%
Average goals
2,1
2,4
Scored
0,9
0,9
Conceded
1,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 5
16 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 12. · Tondela 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 15 12 2 1 +24 38
2 Porto 15 10 4 1 +21 34
3 Sp Braga 15 10 2 3 +14 32
4 Sp Lisbon 15 9 3 3 +12 30
5 Guimaraes 14 8 3 3 +9 27
6 Rio Ave 15 7 2 6 +0 23
7 Chaves 15 5 7 3 +2 22
8 Maritimo 15 6 2 7 -2 20
9 Boavista 15 4 5 6 -2 17
10 Arouca 14 5 2 7 -5 17
11 Belenenses 15 4 5 6 -5 17
12 Vitoria Setubal 14 4 4 6 -3 16
13 Pacos Ferreira 15 4 4 7 -7 16
14 Estoril 15 4 3 8 -7 15
15 Feirense 15 4 2 9 -18 14
16 Nacional 15 3 2 10 -11 11
17 Moreirense 15 3 2 10 -12 11
18 Tondela 14 2 4 8 -10 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Tondela
29′
🟨 Pica
0–1 Pica
own goal
36′
Mikel Agu 🟨
37′
1–1 João Amaral
R. Gauld
41′
Half-time 1–1
57′
🔁 Zé Turbo
↦ Miguel Cardoso
62′
🔁 Hélder Tavares
↦ Fernando Ferreira
André Claro 🔁
↦ Nuno Santos
71′
1–2 Pica
own goal
73′
76′
🔁 D. Flores
↦ Wagner
Zé Manuel 🔁
↦ João Amaral
78′
A. Meyong 🔁
↦ Edinho
87′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

4-3-3
12 Bruno Varela G
13 Vasco Fernandes D
21 Nuno Pinto D
22 Geraldes D
4 Fábio Cardoso D
14 M. Agu M
44 R. Gauld M
36 Edinho F
11 Costinha M
24 João Amaral M
10 Nuno Santos F
Bench (7)
18 André Claro
70 Zé Manuel
19 A. Meyong
3 Frederico Venâncio
7 A. Issoko
8 Nenê Bonilha
88 Pedro Trigueira

Coach: José Couceiro

Tondela

4-2-3-1
1 Cláudio Ramos G
3 Pica D
22 David Bruno D
79 V. Lystsov D
27 Bruno Monteiro M
14 Fernando Ferreira M
20 Pité D
16 E. Moreno F
28 Wagner F
15 J. Murillo F
11 Miguel Cardoso M
Bench (7)
9 Zé Turbo
8 Hélder Tavares
6 D. Flores
12 Ricardo Janota
44 Rafael Amorim
77 Murilo
93 A. També

Coach: Petit

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Luis Godinho · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.