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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Leicester

U T U S T

3–0

Full-time

Burnley

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 16. · Burnley 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Everton	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Man United	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	West Brom	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-3	4
17	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Man United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.