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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Everton

S U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 3. · Middlesbrough 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Everton	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Man United	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
8	West Brom	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Hull	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Hull	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Man United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.