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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Toulouse

S U S U T

2–1

Full-time

Guingamp

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Guingamp

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Guingamp 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	10
3	Nice	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Metz	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Bordeaux	4	3	0	1	+1	9
6	Guingamp	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Lyon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Bastia	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Caen	5	2	0	3	-7	6
11	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	St Etienne	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Marseille	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Lille	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Dijon	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Angers	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Nantes	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Nancy	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Lorient	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Metz	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Caen	3	2	0	1	-3	6
7	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Montpellier	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Dijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Angers	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Lille	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Nancy	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+5	6
2	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Nice	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Metz	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Nancy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Toulouse	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	St Etienne	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Lille	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Dijon	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Caen	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.