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Ligue 1

Referee: Olivier Thual

Troyes

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Metz

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 25%

29%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

50%

52%

Both score Ø 43%

42%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,9

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

10 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Troyes 19. · Metz 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	22	2	2	+62	68
2	Monaco	26	17	5	4	+38	56
3	Marseille	25	15	7	3	+26	52
4	Lyon	25	14	6	5	+24	48
5	Nantes	25	11	5	9	+0	38
6	Montpellier	25	9	10	6	+3	37
7	Bordeaux	25	10	5	10	-2	35
8	Rennes	25	10	4	11	-3	34
9	Nice	25	10	4	11	-6	34
10	Guingamp	25	9	6	10	-7	33
11	Caen	25	9	4	12	-10	31
12	Dijon	25	9	4	12	-16	31
13	St Etienne	25	8	6	11	-14	30
14	Strasbourg	26	8	6	12	-15	30
15	Toulouse	25	7	5	13	-11	26
16	Lille	25	7	5	13	-16	26
17	Amiens	25	7	4	14	-8	25
18	Angers	25	5	10	10	-11	25
19	Troyes	24	7	3	14	-11	24
20	Metz	25	5	3	17	-23	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	13	0	0	+42	39
2	Monaco	14	11	2	1	+26	35
3	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+19	27
4	Dijon	13	8	2	3	+7	26
5	Lyon	12	6	4	2	+8	22
6	Nice	13	7	1	5	+2	22
7	Strasbourg	13	6	3	4	+2	21
8	Montpellier	13	5	5	3	+4	20
9	Bordeaux	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Guingamp	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Nantes	12	6	2	4	+2	20
12	St Etienne	13	5	5	3	-1	20
13	Caen	13	6	2	5	-1	20
14	Toulouse	12	5	3	4	+2	18
15	Amiens	12	5	2	5	+2	17
16	Troyes	12	5	2	5	+0	17
17	Rennes	12	5	1	6	-4	16
18	Lille	12	4	3	5	-4	15
19	Angers	12	3	4	5	-8	13
20	Metz	13	3	1	9	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	2	2	+20	29
2	Lyon	13	8	2	3	+16	26
3	Marseille	13	7	4	2	+7	25
4	Monaco	12	6	3	3	+12	21
5	Rennes	13	5	3	5	+1	18
6	Nantes	13	5	3	5	-2	18
7	Montpellier	12	4	5	3	-1	17
8	Bordeaux	13	4	3	6	-4	15
9	Guingamp	12	4	1	7	-9	13
10	Angers	13	2	6	5	-3	12
11	Nice	12	3	3	6	-8	12
12	Caen	12	3	2	7	-9	11
13	Lille	13	3	2	8	-12	11
14	St Etienne	12	3	1	8	-13	10
15	Strasbourg	13	2	3	8	-17	9
16	Amiens	13	2	2	9	-10	8
17	Metz	12	2	2	8	-12	8
18	Toulouse	13	2	2	9	-13	8
19	Troyes	12	2	1	9	-11	7
20	Dijon	12	1	2	9	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.