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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Lille

T S U T U

1–1

Full-time

Bastia

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

1,8

Scored

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

25%

42%

Average goals

1,1

2,6

Scored

0,5

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 16. · Bastia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Lyon	12	6	4	2	+9	22
3	St Etienne	12	7	1	4	+3	22
4	Angers	13	6	4	3	+3	22
5	Caen	12	7	0	5	-1	21
6	Rennes	13	5	5	3	+3	20
7	Monaco	12	5	5	2	+1	20
8	Nantes	12	6	1	5	-1	19
9	Nice	12	5	3	4	+9	18
10	Lorient	12	4	5	3	+1	17
11	Guingamp	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Marseille	12	4	3	5	+5	15
13	Reims	12	4	3	5	-1	15
14	Bordeaux	12	3	5	4	-4	14
15	Bastia	12	4	1	7	-5	13
16	Lille	12	2	6	4	-1	12
17	Montpellier	12	2	3	7	-6	9
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	12	2	3	7	-7	9
19	Toulouse	13	1	6	6	-14	9
20	Troyes	12	0	4	8	-16	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	St Etienne	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Bastia	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Caen	6	4	0	2	-1	12
5	Lyon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Lorient	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Bordeaux	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Reims	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Angers	7	2	4	1	+0	10
10	Guingamp	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Nantes	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Marseille	6	2	2	2	+7	8
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	Rennes	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	Nice	6	2	1	3	+3	7
16	Toulouse	6	1	4	1	+0	7
17	Lille	6	2	1	3	+0	7
18	Montpellier	6	2	0	4	-2	6
19	Monaco	6	1	3	2	-3	6
20	Troyes	7	0	3	4	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+11	19
2	Monaco	6	4	2	0	+4	14
3	Rennes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Angers	6	4	0	2	+3	12
5	Nice	6	3	2	1	+6	11
6	Lyon	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Nantes	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Caen	6	3	0	3	+0	9
9	St Etienne	6	3	0	3	-2	9
10	Marseille	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	-5	7
12	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Lille	6	0	5	1	-1	5
14	Reims	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-4	3
16	Bordeaux	6	0	3	3	-8	3
17	Toulouse	7	0	2	5	-14	2
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-8	1
19	Bastia	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Troyes	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.