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Ligue 1

Referee: Said Ennjimi

Bastia

S S S U U

1–2

Full-time

Lille

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

1,2

1,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 33%

38%

28%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 23%

28%

17%

Both score Ø 35%

31%

38%

Average goals

1,9

1,6

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 12. · Lille 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	23	5	1	+53	74
2	Monaco	30	13	13	4	+10	52
3	Lyon	29	13	6	10	+14	45
4	Nice	29	12	8	9	+8	44
5	Rennes	29	11	11	7	+6	44
6	Caen	29	13	4	12	-6	43
7	St Etienne	29	12	6	11	+1	42
8	Nantes	29	10	11	8	-1	41
9	Marseille	30	8	15	7	+9	39
10	Angers	29	10	9	10	+0	39
11	Lorient	30	9	12	9	-1	39
12	Bastia	29	11	6	12	-2	39
13	Bordeaux	29	9	11	9	-6	38
14	Lille	29	8	13	8	+0	37
15	Montpellier	29	10	6	13	+3	36
16	Reims	30	8	9	13	-9	33
17	Guingamp	29	8	8	13	-11	32
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	29	6	12	11	-10	30
19	Toulouse	29	4	11	14	-20	23
20	Troyes	29	2	8	19	-38	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+32	36
2	Lyon	15	9	3	3	+18	30
3	Bastia	15	9	2	4	+9	29
4	Monaco	15	7	6	2	+8	27
5	Nice	15	8	2	5	+6	26
6	Bordeaux	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Lille	15	7	4	4	+6	25
8	Lorient	15	6	6	3	+7	24
9	St Etienne	14	7	3	4	+5	24
10	Nantes	14	6	5	3	+3	23
11	Caen	15	7	2	6	-5	23
12	Angers	15	5	7	3	+3	22
13	Montpellier	15	7	0	8	+2	21
14	Guingamp	14	5	5	4	+4	20
15	Reims	15	5	5	5	+3	20
16	Rennes	14	5	5	4	+2	20
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	14	3	7	4	-3	16
18	Marseille	15	2	9	4	+5	15
19	Toulouse	14	2	7	5	-2	13
20	Troyes	14	0	6	8	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	12	2	1	+21	38
2	Monaco	15	6	7	2	+2	25
3	Rennes	15	6	6	3	+4	24
4	Marseille	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Caen	14	6	2	6	-1	20
6	Nice	14	4	6	4	+2	18
7	St Etienne	15	5	3	7	-4	18
8	Nantes	15	4	6	5	-4	18
9	Angers	14	5	2	7	-3	17
10	Montpellier	14	3	6	5	+1	15
11	Lyon	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Lorient	15	3	6	6	-8	15
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	15	3	5	7	-7	14
14	Reims	15	3	4	8	-12	13
15	Lille	14	1	9	4	-6	12
16	Bordeaux	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Guingamp	15	3	3	9	-15	12
18	Bastia	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-18	10
20	Troyes	15	2	2	11	-26	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.