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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Lille

T S U T T

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 17. · Toulouse 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Nice	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	10
4	Metz	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Bordeaux	5	3	0	2	+0	9
6	Toulouse	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Guingamp	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	St Etienne	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Bastia	5	2	0	3	+0	6
12	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Angers	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Caen	5	2	0	3	-7	6
15	Marseille	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Dijon	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Lille	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Nancy	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Lorient	5	1	0	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Toulouse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Metz	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Bordeaux	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Caen	3	2	0	1	-3	6
9	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Montpellier	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Dijon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Angers	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Lille	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-4	3
19	Nancy	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+5	6
2	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Guingamp	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Lyon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Nice	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Metz	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Bastia	3	1	0	2	+0	3
9	Nancy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Angers	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Toulouse	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	St Etienne	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Lille	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Dijon	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Caen	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.