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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Toulouse

U T U S T

2–0

Full-time

Caen

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

16%

45%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

48%

45%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Caen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	25	5	2	+63	80
2	Monaco	32	14	13	5	+11	55
3	Nice	32	14	8	10	+10	50
4	Lyon	31	14	7	10	+16	49
5	Rennes	31	12	12	7	+9	48
6	Caen	31	14	4	13	-6	46
7	St Etienne	31	13	6	12	+2	45
8	Nantes	31	11	11	9	-1	44
9	Lille	31	10	13	8	+2	43
10	Angers	31	11	9	11	+2	42
11	Bordeaux	32	10	12	10	-9	42
12	Bastia	31	11	7	13	-3	40
13	Marseille	31	8	15	8	+6	39
14	Lorient	31	9	12	10	-5	39
15	Guingamp	31	10	8	13	-8	38
16	Montpellier	31	10	6	15	-2	36
17	Reims	31	8	9	14	-10	33
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	31	7	12	12	-12	33
19	Toulouse	31	5	11	15	-17	26
20	Troyes	31	2	8	21	-48	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	3	1	+33	39
2	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+20	33
3	Nice	16	9	2	5	+9	29
4	Bastia	16	9	2	5	+8	29
5	Lille	16	8	4	4	+7	28
6	St Etienne	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Monaco	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Nantes	15	7	5	3	+5	26
10	Caen	16	8	2	6	-4	26
11	Angers	16	6	7	3	+7	25
12	Lorient	15	6	6	3	+7	24
13	Guingamp	15	6	5	4	+6	23
14	Rennes	15	5	6	4	+2	21
15	Montpellier	16	7	0	9	+0	21
16	Reims	16	5	5	6	+2	20
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	15	4	7	4	-2	19
18	Toulouse	15	3	7	5	+2	16
19	Marseille	16	2	9	5	+2	15
20	Troyes	15	0	6	9	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+30	41
2	Monaco	16	7	7	2	+4	28
3	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+7	27
4	Marseille	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Nice	16	5	6	5	+1	21
6	Caen	15	6	2	7	-2	20
7	St Etienne	16	5	3	8	-6	18
8	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-6	18
9	Angers	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Lyon	15	4	4	7	-4	16
11	Montpellier	15	3	6	6	-2	15
12	Lille	15	2	9	4	-5	15
13	Lorient	16	3	6	7	-12	15
14	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	Bordeaux	16	3	6	7	-15	15
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Reims	15	3	4	8	-12	13
18	Bastia	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-19	10
20	Troyes	16	2	2	12	-27	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.