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Championship

Referee: Mark Heywood

Birmingham

U T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Burnley

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 47%

39%

54%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

34%

46%

Both score Ø 44%

39%

49%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

21 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 9. · Burnley 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	42	26	7	9	+32	85
2	Burnley	41	22	14	5	+31	80
3	Brighton	40	22	13	5	+24	79
4	Hull	38	21	9	8	+34	72
5	Sheffield Weds	38	18	11	9	+19	65
6	Derby	39	17	13	9	+16	64
7	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+8	63
8	Ipswich	41	16	12	13	+0	60
9	Birmingham	41	16	11	14	+5	59
10	Preston	41	14	14	13	+0	56
11	QPR	41	13	16	12	+4	55
12	Wolves	42	13	14	15	-5	53
13	Brentford	40	15	7	18	-4	52
14	Reading	41	13	12	16	-2	51
15	Leeds	41	12	15	14	-9	51
16	Blackburn	41	11	14	16	-1	47
17	Fulham	42	11	14	17	-9	47
18	Bristol City	41	12	11	18	-19	47
19	Huddersfield	41	12	10	19	-5	46
20	Nott'm Forest	41	11	13	17	-7	46
21	Rotherham	41	13	7	21	-13	46
22	Milton Keynes Dons	41	9	10	22	-25	37
23	Charlton	41	8	12	21	-35	36
24	Bolton	42	4	14	24	-39	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	21	16	3	2	+26	51
2	Burnley	21	14	5	2	+23	47
3	Brighton	20	14	3	3	+18	45
4	Hull	18	13	5	0	+31	44
5	Sheffield Weds	19	12	5	2	+22	41
6	Cardiff	20	11	7	2	+12	40
7	Derby	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	QPR	21	9	8	4	+11	35
9	Reading	21	8	9	4	+7	33
10	Ipswich	21	8	7	6	+3	31
11	Birmingham	20	9	3	8	+1	30
12	Preston	20	7	8	5	+1	29
13	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+6	28
14	Rotherham	20	8	4	8	-2	28
15	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-1	27
16	Wolves	21	6	9	6	-1	27
17	Nott'm Forest	21	7	6	8	-1	27
18	Huddersfield	21	7	5	9	+4	26
19	Fulham	21	7	5	9	+1	26
20	Bristol City	21	6	7	8	-3	25
21	Milton Keynes Dons	21	7	3	11	-12	24
22	Charlton	20	5	8	7	-6	23
23	Leeds	20	5	8	7	-6	23
24	Bolton	21	4	10	7	-3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	20	8	10	2	+6	34
2	Middlesbrough	21	10	4	7	+6	34
3	Burnley	20	8	9	3	+8	33
4	Birmingham	21	7	8	6	+4	29
5	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	-3	29
6	Hull	20	8	4	8	+3	28
7	Leeds	21	7	7	7	-3	28
8	Preston	21	7	6	8	-1	27
9	Wolves	21	7	5	9	-4	26
10	Derby	19	6	7	6	-2	25
11	Brentford	20	7	4	9	-3	25
12	Sheffield Weds	19	6	6	7	-3	24
13	Cardiff	21	5	8	8	-4	23
14	Bristol City	20	6	4	10	-16	22
15	Fulham	21	4	9	8	-10	21
16	QPR	20	4	8	8	-7	20
17	Huddersfield	20	5	5	10	-9	20
18	Nott'm Forest	20	4	7	9	-6	19
19	Blackburn	21	4	7	10	-7	19
20	Reading	20	5	3	12	-9	18
21	Rotherham	21	5	3	13	-11	18
22	Milton Keynes Dons	20	2	7	11	-13	13
23	Charlton	21	3	4	14	-29	13
24	Bolton	21	0	4	17	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.