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Ligue 1
Referee: Benoît Millot
Rennes
T S S
3–1
Full-time
Toulouse
S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rennes Toulouse
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%
12 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 3
3 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rennes 6. · Toulouse 11. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Bastia 3 2 1 0 +4 7
3 Lyon 4 2 1 1 +4 7
4 Angers 3 2 1 0 +4 7
5 Nantes 3 2 1 0 +2 7
6 Rennes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
7 Reims 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Caen 4 2 0 2 -3 6
9 Monaco 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 Nice 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Toulouse 3 1 1 1 +0 4
12 St Etienne 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 Marseille 4 1 0 3 +2 3
14 Guingamp 4 1 0 3 -3 3
15 Bordeaux 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Lorient 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Lille 3 0 2 1 -1 2
18 Troyes 3 0 2 1 -6 2
19 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 Montpellier 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rennes Toulouse
5′
⚽ M. Braithwaite 0–1
A. Regattin
0–2 S. Yago ⚽
own goal
17′
Half-time 0–2
46′
🔁 M. Tisserand
↦ P. Ninkov
Gélson Fernandes 🟨
55′
55′
🟨 Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
P. Ntep 🔁
↦ K. Grosicki
63′
65′
🟨 Marcel Tisserand
67′
🟨 Mauro Goicoechea
1–2 S. Armand ⚽
67′
72′
🔁 A. Pešić
↦ A. Regattin
Pedro Henrique 🟨
75′
S. Moreira 🔁
↦ M. Zeffane
75′
B. André 🔁
↦ Pedro Henrique
79′
82′
🔁 Y. Bodiger
↦ E. Didot
2–2 G. Sio ⚽
P. Ntep
90′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Rennes

1 B. Costil
22 S. Armand D
14 F. Diagne D
4 Mexer D
2 M. Zeffane D
24 L. Baal D
6 G. Fernandes M
20 Y. Sylla M
10 K. Grosicki M
13 G. Sio F
18 Pedro Henrique F
Bench (7)
7 P. Ntep
12 S. Moreira
21 B. André
27 H. Habibou
16 O. Sorin
3 C. M'Bengue
29 R. Danzé

Toulouse

1 M. Goicoechea G
24 P. Ninkov D
29 F. Moubandje D
3 J. Kana-Biyik D
7 J. Akpa Akpro M
20 S. Yago D
8 E. Didot M
18 O. Trejo M
19 Somália M
17 A. Regattin M
9 M. Braithwaite F
Bench (7)
26 M. Tisserand
11 A. Pešić
23 Y. Bodiger
30 A. Ahamada
2 M. Spano
10 W. Ben Yedder
27 A. Blin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Benoît Millot · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.