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Ligue 1
Referee: Fredy Fautrel
Bastia
S U
3–0
Full-time
Guingamp
T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Guingamp
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
2,5
1,0
Scored
1,5
0,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
2,5
1,0
Scored
1,5
0,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%
10 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
4 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bastia 6. · Guingamp 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Reims 2 2 0 0 +2 6
3 Caen 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Rennes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
5 Angers 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Bastia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Nantes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Lyon 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Toulouse 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Troyes 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Lorient 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Nice 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Bordeaux 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 St Etienne 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Lille 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Marseille 2 0 0 2 -2 0
19 Guingamp 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Montpellier 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bastia Guingamp
1–0 J. Palmieri ⚽
S. Squillaci
5′
2–0 J. Palmieri ⚽
F. Ayité
39′
Half-time 2–0
51′
🟨 Mana Dembélé
Floyd Ayité 🟨
53′
C. Maboulou 🔁
↦ J. Palmieri
54′
58′
🔁 N. De Pauw
↦ T. Giresse
61′
🟨 Jérémy Sorbon
64′
🔁 S. Privat
↦ M. Dembélé
Alexander Djiku 🟨
69′
77′
🔁 J. Bègue
↦ J. Briand
L. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ F. Kamano
82′
83′
🟨 Nill De Pauw
Y. Jebbour 🔁
↦ A. Djiku
87′
3–0 L. Coulibaly ⚽
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Bastia

1 J. Hansen G
28 F. Marange D
20 F. Modesto D
5 S. Squillaci D
15 J. Palmieri D
23 A. Djiku D
8 G. Danic M
18 Y. Cahuzac M
7 F. Ayité F
6 S. Fofana M
25 F. Kamano F
Bench (7)
22 C. Maboulou
33 L. Coulibaly
24 Y. Jebbour
10 L. Houri
17 M. Peybernes
19 Adama Ba
30 T. Vincensini

Guingamp

1 J. Lössl G
15 J. Sorbon D
6 M. Baca D
29 C. Kerbrat D
7 D. Lévêque D
5 M. Diallo M
13 Y. Sankhare M
26 T. Giresse M
19 Y. Salibur M
23 J. Briand F
9 M. Dembélé F
Bench (7)
12 N. De Pauw
11 S. Privat
17 J. Bègue
4 B. Angoua
18 L. Mathis
20 L. Dos Santos
30 M. Samassa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Fredy Fautrel · 23 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
6,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.