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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Atalanta

U S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Spal

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,7

1,8

Scored

3,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

45%

23%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

68%

41%

Both score Ø 48%

55%

41%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

9 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 7. · Spal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	22	19	3	0	+31	60
2	Napoli	23	16	4	3	+24	52
3	Inter	23	13	4	6	+16	43
4	Roma	23	10	8	5	+14	38
5	Lazio	23	11	5	7	+7	38
6	Milan	22	9	9	4	+8	36
7	Atalanta	22	10	5	7	+18	35
8	Sampdoria	22	9	6	7	+10	33
9	Fiorentina	23	7	11	5	+8	32
10	Torino	22	7	10	5	+5	31
11	Sassuolo	22	7	9	6	+1	30
12	Parma	23	8	5	10	-7	29
13	Genoa	23	6	7	10	-10	25
14	Spal	22	5	7	10	-11	22
15	Cagliari	22	4	9	9	-12	21
16	Udinese	22	4	7	11	-12	19
17	Bologna	23	3	9	11	-17	18
18	Empoli	23	4	6	13	-18	18
19	Frosinone	22	2	7	13	-27	13
20	Chievo	23	1	9	13	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Juventus	12	10	2	0	+17	32
3	Inter	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+11	22
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+6	21
6	Milan	11	6	3	2	+4	21
7	Sampdoria	10	6	2	2	+11	20
8	Fiorentina	11	5	4	2	+9	19
9	Sassuolo	11	4	5	2	+1	17
10	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+1	17
11	Torino	10	5	1	4	+2	16
12	Atalanta	10	4	3	3	+8	15
13	Cagliari	11	3	6	2	+2	15
14	Empoli	12	4	2	6	-4	14
15	Parma	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Spal	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Bologna	11	2	4	5	-8	10
19	Chievo	12	1	4	7	-13	7
20	Frosinone	11	0	5	6	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+10	20
3	Inter	12	6	2	4	+4	20
4	Napoli	11	6	2	3	+3	20
5	Lazio	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Roma	12	4	4	4	+3	16
7	Parma	11	5	1	5	-4	16
8	Milan	11	3	6	2	+4	15
9	Torino	12	2	9	1	+3	15
10	Sassuolo	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-1	13
12	Fiorentina	12	2	7	3	-1	13
13	Spal	11	3	1	7	-8	10
14	Bologna	12	1	5	6	-9	8
15	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-11	8
16	Frosinone	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Udinese	10	1	4	5	-6	7
18	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-14	6
19	Chievo	11	0	5	6	-15	5
20	Empoli	11	0	4	7	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.