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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Brighton

U T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

28%

61%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

56%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

6 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 13. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	1	0	+44	52
2	Man United	18	13	2	3	+27	41
3	Chelsea	19	12	3	4	+18	39
4	Liverpool	19	9	8	2	+18	35
5	Arsenal	19	10	4	5	+11	34
6	Burnley	18	9	5	4	+4	32
7	Tottenham	18	9	4	5	+13	31
8	Leicester	18	7	5	6	+1	26
9	Everton	19	7	5	7	-6	26
10	Watford	18	6	4	8	-6	22
11	Huddersfield	18	6	3	9	-14	21
12	Southampton	18	4	6	8	-7	18
13	Brighton	18	4	6	8	-9	18
14	Crystal Palace	18	4	5	9	-13	17
15	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-15	17
16	Bournemouth	18	4	4	10	-9	16
17	Stoke	18	4	4	10	-20	16
18	Newcastle	18	4	3	11	-11	15
19	West Brom	18	2	8	8	-11	14
20	Swansea	18	3	3	12	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	8	1	0	+25	25
2	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Man United	9	8	0	1	+19	24
4	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+7	19
5	Everton	10	6	1	3	+4	19
6	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+10	18
7	Liverpool	9	4	5	0	+11	17
8	Burnley	9	5	2	2	+4	17
9	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Leicester	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Southampton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	Brighton	9	2	5	2	-3	11
14	West Ham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
15	Stoke	9	3	2	4	-8	11
16	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Watford	9	2	3	4	-9	9
18	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-4	8
19	West Brom	9	1	5	3	-5	8
20	Swansea	9	2	1	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+7	18
4	Man United	9	5	2	2	+8	17
5	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+0	15
6	Watford	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Arsenal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-5	8
11	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-6	7
12	Everton	9	1	4	4	-10	7
13	Huddersfield	9	2	1	6	-12	7
14	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	West Brom	9	1	3	5	-6	6
16	West Ham	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Swansea	9	1	2	6	-6	5
18	Newcastle	9	1	2	6	-8	5
19	Crystal Palace	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.