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La Liga
Referee: David Fernandez Borbalan
Sp Gijon
U S U T T
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Gijon Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
0,8
2,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,7
This season — La Liga · 31/30 matches
Win Ø 45%
16%
73%
Points per game
0,7
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
65%
80%
Both score Ø 71%
68%
73%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
1,0
2,6
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+1,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

31% Possession 69%
4 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 8
0 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 11
5 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Gijon 18. · Real Madrid 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 30 22 6 2 +48 72
2 Barcelona 31 21 6 4 +60 69
3 Ath Madrid 31 18 8 5 +32 62
4 Sevilla 31 18 7 6 +17 61
5 Villarreal 31 15 9 7 +21 54
6 Ath Bilbao 32 16 5 11 +8 53
7 Sociedad 31 16 4 11 +4 52
8 Eibar 31 14 8 9 +10 50
9 Espanol 31 12 10 9 +1 46
10 Celta 30 12 5 13 -6 41
11 Alaves 31 10 10 11 -9 40
12 Valencia 31 11 6 14 -7 39
13 Las Palmas 32 10 8 14 -6 38
14 Malaga 32 8 9 15 -13 33
15 La Coruna 32 7 10 15 -15 31
16 Betis 31 8 7 16 -18 31
17 Leganes 31 6 9 16 -22 27
18 Sp Gijon 31 5 7 19 -29 22
19 Granada 31 4 8 19 -38 20
20 Osasuna 31 3 8 20 -38 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Gijon Real Madrid
1–0 D. Čop
Mikel Vesga
14′
17′
Isco 1–1
Lucas Vázquez
Sergio Álvarez 🟨
34′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Mikel Vesga
J. Babin
50′
57′
🔁 Marcelo
↦ Fábio Coentrão
59′
Álvaro Morata 2–2
Danilo
Lillo Castellano 🟨
61′
Nacho Cases 🔁
↦ Moi Gómez
69′
71′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ Lucas Vázquez
Isma López 🟨
79′
D. N'Di 🔁
↦ D. Čop
79′
Nacho Cases 🟨
87′
89′
🟨 Álvaro Morata
89′
🔁 Casemiro
↦ M. Kovačić
Akram Afif 🟨
90′
90′
Isco 2–3
Marcelo
Akram Afif 🔁
↦ Sergio Álvarez
92′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Sp Gijon

5-3-2
1 Pichu Cuéllar G
5 F. Amorebieta D
3 J. Babin D
16 Lillo Castellano D
4 Jorge Meré D
18 Isma López M
6 Sergio Álvarez M
23 Moi Gómez M
22 Mikel Vesga M
24 D. Čop F
19 Carlos Carmona M
Bench (7)
10 Nacho Cases
20 D. N'Di
17 Akram Afif
13 Diego Mariño
9 Carlos Castro
15 Canella
21 Xavi Torres

Coach: Rubí

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 Kiko Casilla G
4 Sergio Ramos D
15 Fábio Coentrão D
23 Danilo D
6 Nacho D
10 J. Rodríguez M
22 Isco M
16 M. Kovačić M
20 Marco Asensio M
21 Álvaro Morata F
17 Lucas Vázquez M
Bench (7)
12 Marcelo
18 M. Díaz
14 Casemiro
25 Rubén Yáñez
27 Álvaro Tejero
19 L. Modrić
8 T. Kroos

Coach: Z. Zidane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

David Fernandez Borbalan · 58 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.