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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Chaves

T U T S T

2–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

67% Possession 33%

31 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 8. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	22	5	2	+47	71
2	Porto	28	20	7	1	+49	67
3	Sp Lisbon	29	19	6	4	+31	63
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+17	50
5	Guimaraes	28	14	8	6	+11	50
6	Maritimo	29	12	8	9	+0	44
7	Rio Ave	28	11	6	11	-3	39
8	Chaves	28	8	12	8	+0	36
9	Boavista	29	8	11	10	-3	35
10	Vitoria Setubal	29	9	8	12	-3	35
11	Feirense	28	10	5	13	-16	35
12	Belenenses	29	8	8	13	-14	32
13	Pacos Ferreira	29	6	11	12	-12	29
14	Estoril	29	7	7	15	-11	28
15	Arouca	28	8	4	16	-19	28
16	Moreirense	28	5	6	17	-19	21
17	Nacional	28	4	8	16	-26	20
18	Tondela	28	3	8	17	-29	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+32	41
2	Benfica	15	12	3	0	+34	39
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+22	35
4	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+16	30
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+10	30
6	Chaves	14	6	7	1	+7	25
7	Vitoria Setubal	15	7	3	5	+4	24
8	Guimaraes	14	6	5	3	+5	23
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	7	2	+3	22
10	Rio Ave	14	6	4	4	+1	22
11	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
13	Boavista	14	4	4	6	+2	16
14	Arouca	14	5	1	8	-6	16
15	Moreirense	14	2	6	6	-5	12
16	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Nacional	14	2	6	6	-8	12
18	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
3	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+6	27
4	Porto	13	7	5	1	+17	26
5	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Boavista	15	4	7	4	-5	19
7	Feirense	13	5	3	5	-6	18
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	17
9	Rio Ave	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-10	15
11	Maritimo	15	3	5	7	-10	14
12	Arouca	14	3	3	8	-13	12
13	Chaves	14	2	5	7	-7	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	5	7	-7	11
15	Moreirense	14	3	0	11	-14	9
16	Nacional	14	2	2	10	-18	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	15	0	5	10	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.