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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Watford

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

25%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

48%

72%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

59%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 13

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Swansea 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	31	24	3	4	+40	75
2	Tottenham	32	21	8	3	+46	71
3	Liverpool	32	18	9	5	+28	63
4	Man City	31	18	7	6	+25	61
5	Man United	30	15	12	3	+22	57
6	Arsenal	30	16	6	8	+22	54
7	Everton	32	15	9	8	+21	54
8	West Brom	32	12	8	12	-2	44
9	Southampton	30	11	7	12	+0	40
10	Watford	31	10	7	14	-16	37
11	Leicester	31	10	6	15	-12	36
12	Burnley	32	10	6	16	-12	36
13	Stoke	32	9	9	14	-13	36
14	West Ham	32	10	6	16	-15	36
15	Bournemouth	33	9	8	16	-18	35
16	Crystal Palace	31	10	4	17	-8	34
17	Hull	32	8	6	18	-31	30
18	Swansea	32	8	4	20	-30	28
19	Middlesbrough	31	4	12	15	-15	24
20	Sunderland	31	5	5	21	-32	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	17	15	2	0	+35	47
2	Chelsea	15	13	0	2	+28	39
3	Everton	16	11	4	1	+26	37
4	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+25	37
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	16	10	2	4	+9	32
7	Man City	15	8	6	1	+12	30
8	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
9	West Brom	16	9	2	5	+8	29
10	Man United	16	6	9	1	+10	27
11	Watford	16	7	4	5	+1	25
12	Hull	16	7	4	5	-1	25
13	Bournemouth	16	7	3	6	+1	24
14	Stoke	16	6	5	5	+1	23
15	Southampton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
16	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-9	21
17	Swansea	16	5	3	8	-11	18
18	Crystal Palace	15	5	1	9	-2	16
19	Middlesbrough	15	3	5	7	-5	14
20	Sunderland	16	3	4	9	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+12	36
2	Man City	16	10	1	5	+13	31
3	Man United	14	9	3	2	+12	30
4	Liverpool	16	7	5	4	+3	26
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
6	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+6	21
7	Southampton	16	5	3	8	-2	18
8	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-6	18
9	Everton	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	West Ham	16	4	3	9	-6	15
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-14	13
13	Watford	15	3	3	9	-17	12
14	Bournemouth	17	2	5	10	-19	11
15	Middlesbrough	16	1	7	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	16	3	1	12	-19	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	15	1	3	11	-20	6
19	Hull	16	1	2	13	-30	5
20	Burnley	16	0	4	12	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.